Climate Change: War Instigator Or Peacekeeper?

Climate change is already increasing the likelihood of conflict, with droughts and extreme weather events causing mayhem and forcing millions to flee their homes. A 2019 article in The Economist linked climate change, terrorism, political mismanagement, and conflict in the Lake Chad region, where the jihadists of Boko Haram have caused 2.4 million people to flee. Studies have found a strong causal link between climate change and conflict, with each temperature or extreme rainfall variation increasing the frequency of interpersonal violence and intergroup conflict. As the world gets hotter, the risk of violence and war will only increase.

Droughts and extreme weather events increase the likelihood of conflict

Droughts and extreme weather events are already making conflict more likely. As the world gets hotter, the likelihood of conflict may increase further. While green campaigners and headline-writers sometimes oversimplify the link between global warming and war, presenting climate change as the sole cause, it is one of several factors that can increase the risk of conflict.

A meta-analysis carried out in the early 2010s by Solomon Hsiang, Lab co-director at Princeton University, and Marshall Burke, then at the University of California, Berkeley, found "strong support" for a causal link between climate change and conflict. Their research encompassed everything from interpersonal to large-scale violence. They even attempted to quantify the relationship, suggesting that each rise in temperature or extreme rainfall by one standard variation increased the frequency of interpersonal violence by 4% and intergroup conflict by 14%.

The situation in the Lake Chad region, which covers parts of Chad, Nigeria, Niger, and Cameroon, is illustrative. Here, terrorism, political mismanagement, and climate change have combined to create an "inferno of war". The area has seen over 2.4 million people forced to flee due to the violence. While the most obvious cause of their suffering is ideological, with the jihadists of Boko Haram seeking to establish a caliphate, climate change and environmental degradation may have played a role in increasing the risk of conflict.

Climate change can cause social and political instability, leading to violence

The link between climate change and violence is complex and multifaceted. While climate change may not be the sole cause of conflict, it can act as a catalyst or exacerbating factor. As temperatures rise and extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the risk of social and political instability increases. This is particularly true in regions that are already vulnerable due to poverty, political instability, or existing social tensions.

A meta-analysis conducted in the early 2010s by Solomon Hsiang and Marshall Burke found "strong support" for a causal link between climate change and conflict. They quantified the relationship, suggesting that each rise in temperature or extreme rainfall by one standard variation increased the frequency of interpersonal violence by 4% and intergroup conflict by 14%. This indicates that climate change can indirectly contribute to social and political instability, leading to an increased risk of violence.

The impact of climate change on violence can also be indirect. For example, climate change can lead to resource scarcity, displacement of communities, and economic disruptions. These factors can increase social and political tensions, leading to instability and, in some cases, violent conflicts. This is particularly evident in regions heavily dependent on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, fishing, or natural resources, where climate change can disrupt livelihoods and exacerbate existing inequalities.

Furthermore, the effects of climate change can also influence political and social stability by impacting human behavior and decision-making. For instance, extreme weather events can cause psychological stress and displace communities, leading to social unrest and potential conflicts. Additionally, the perception of climate change as a threat can influence political agendas and shape social dynamics, potentially leading to polarization and instability.

The impact of climate change on resource availability can lead to competition and conflict

Climate change is already increasing the likelihood of conflict, and as the planet continues to heat up, the risk of wars breaking out will only increase. This is due to the impact of climate change on resource availability, which can lead to competition and conflict as people fight for dwindling resources.

One example of this is the situation in the Lake Chad region, where climate change, terrorism, and political mismanagement have combined to create a volatile mix. The lake, which is shared by four countries—Chad, Nigeria, Niger, and Cameroon—has shrunk by 90% since the 1960s due to drought and increased water demand. This has led to competition for water and agricultural resources, contributing to the region's instability. As a result, some 2.4 million people have been forced to flee as the conflict spread across borders.

Droughts and water scarcity are not the only factors contributing to potential conflicts. Climate change is also causing more frequent and intense extreme weather events, including floods, which can destroy homes and livelihoods, leading to mass migration and competition for resources. A meta-analysis conducted in the early 2010s found "strong support" for a causal link between climate change and conflict, encompassing interpersonal violence and large-scale conflict. The study even attempted to quantify the relationship, suggesting that each increase in temperature or extreme rainfall by one standard variation increased the likelihood of interpersonal violence by 4% and intergroup conflict by 14%.

As the world continues to heat up, the impact of climate change on resource availability will become more pronounced, leading to increased competition and conflict. It is essential to recognize this link and address the root causes of these conflicts to build a more peaceful and sustainable future for all.

The link between climate change and conflict is complex and influenced by various factors

One example is the situation in the Lake Chad region, where climate change, terrorism, and political mismanagement intersect. The impact of climate change, specifically droughts, has been linked to an increased risk of conflict. As temperatures rise, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including floods and droughts, are expected to rise, creating conditions that can fuel tensions and lead to violence.

A meta-analysis conducted in the early 2010s by Solomon Hsiang and Marshall Burke found "strong support" for a causal link between climate change and conflict. Their research suggested that each rise in temperature or extreme rainfall by one standard variation increased the frequency of interpersonal violence by 4% and intergroup conflict by 14%. This indicates that climate change can indirectly contribute to conflict by exacerbating social, economic, and political grievances.

The complex interplay of factors influencing conflict means that the impact of climate change cannot be viewed in isolation. For instance, in the Lake Chad region, the effects of climate change interact with ideological factors, such as the presence of extremist groups like Boko Haram, contributing to the overall instability. Similarly, in other regions, climate change may intersect with factors such as poverty, inequality, or political instability, further complicating the situation and increasing the potential for conflict.

It is important to recognize that while climate change can fuel wars, the specific manifestations of conflict are shaped by local contexts and a multitude of interconnected factors. Addressing the complex link between climate change and conflict requires a comprehensive approach that considers both the environmental and socio-political dimensions of this global challenge.

Climate change can exacerbate existing tensions and conflicts, making them more difficult to resolve

Climate change can have significant impacts on societies and countries, and one of the most concerning ways it can do this is by exacerbating existing tensions and conflicts. This can occur in several ways, making these issues more challenging to resolve.

Firstly, climate change can increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts. These events can cause social and economic disruptions, including damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and livelihoods, leading to increased competition for scarce resources and heightened social tensions. For example, in the Lake Chad region, climate change, political mismanagement, and terrorism have combined to create a dire situation, with the lake shrinking due to drought, causing conflict to spill across borders.

Secondly, climate change can act as a threat multiplier, worsening existing social, political, and economic grievances. As seen in the example of Baga Sola, Chad, where a refugee camp called Dar es Salaam (meaning "haven of peace") is surrounded by an "inferno of war", climate change can interact with ideological, political, and economic factors to fuel conflicts. Drought and environmental degradation can displace populations, leading to increased competition with existing communities over resources and services, exacerbating existing tensions and making their resolution more complex.

Furthermore, climate change can contribute to social instability by causing large-scale population movements and migration. As certain regions become less habitable due to rising temperatures, sea-level rise, or extreme weather events, people may be forced to migrate, leading to increased social and economic pressures in receiving areas. This can heighten competition for resources, strain infrastructure, and potentially spark or intensify conflicts, particularly if the influx of migrants is perceived as a threat by host communities.

The relationship between climate change and conflict is complex and multifaceted. While climate change is rarely the sole cause of wars, it can act as a contributing factor, increasing the likelihood and severity of violent conflicts. Studies have found strong support for a causal link between climate change and conflict, suggesting that the impact of climate change on societies can fuel tensions and create an environment where conflicts become more challenging to resolve.

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