The Unyielding Dependence On Fossil Fuels: Why The Reluctance To Change?

Fossil fuels are the world's leading cause of climate change, accounting for over 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90% of all carbon dioxide emissions. Despite this, fossil fuels still account for more than 80% of global energy production. So why can't we replace them?

The answer is complex and multifaceted. Firstly, renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power are intermittent, meaning they are weather-dependent and cannot always meet energy demands. Additionally, the infrastructure required to transmit and store renewable energy is costly and currently insufficient. The materials used in renewable energy infrastructure, such as wind turbines and solar panels, are also difficult to dispose of at the end of their lifespan.

Another factor is the powerful influence of the fossil fuel industry, which has profited from selling and burning vast quantities of coal, oil, and gas. This industry has often worked to confuse the public, polarize the issue, and delay action on climate change.

Furthermore, renewable energy sources are not yet cost-effective in many cases and often require heavy government subsidies. However, this is changing rapidly as prices for renewable energy technologies are dropping.

Finally, there is a matter of public perception and political will. While the majority of people want to see action on climate change, there is often a disconnect between individual actions and the systemic change required to transition away from fossil fuels. Additionally, the cognitive dissonance of simultaneously reducing fossil fuel demand while increasing supply underscores the complexity of the issue.

In conclusion, there are numerous barriers to replacing fossil fuels, but it is crucial that we address these challenges to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change.

Fossil fuels are finite and cannot replenish fast enough to meet growing energy demands

Fossil fuels are finite and, at the current rate of global energy demands, they cannot replenish fast enough to meet these growing needs. Fossil fuels (coal, oil, petroleum, and natural gas) are originally formed from plants and animals that lived hundreds of millions of years ago and became buried deep beneath the Earth's surface. These combustible materials are used to heat homes, run cars, power offices, industry and manufacturing, and meet our demands for electrical goods.

Nearly 80% of the energy needed to meet global demands comes from burning fossil fuels. Predictions estimate that global energy demand will grow by a third by 2035, and the global population is expected to increase to nine billion people over the next 50 years, increasing energy demands proportionately. Fossil fuels are not renewable and, once they are gone, they cannot be replaced.

Estimates for fossil fuel reserve depletion range from 50-120 years. None of these projections are appealing for a global community that is so heavily dependent on energy, and these estimates do not account for the more than 1.2 billion people who do not yet have access to electricity.

Renewable energy sources currently provide only about 7% of the world's energy needs. While these sources are expected to play an increasingly vital role in the mix of power generation over the next century, they are not yet able to keep up with growing demands.

Renewable energy is not yet cost-effective

Renewable energy sources are currently not cost-effective for several reasons. Firstly, the sun doesn't always shine, and the wind doesn't always blow, resulting in potential blackouts when renewable power is insufficient to meet electricity demand. This issue of intermittency complicates the use of renewable energy on a large scale and requires traditional fossil fuels or nuclear power to supplement. Additionally, there are massive costs associated with constructing transmission infrastructure, such as power lines, to share power within and between countries.

The costs of building and disposing of renewable energy infrastructure, such as wind turbines and solar panels, are also significant. Wind turbines, for example, require massive amounts of steel and concrete, which contribute to their environmental impact. Solar panels contain toxic chemicals, and their end-of-life wastes are more hazardous than nuclear waste. These environmental costs are often excluded from analyses promoting renewable energy.

Furthermore, renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind technology, have been subsidized for decades and still produce less than 1% of the world's energy. The need for subsidies indicates that renewable energy is not yet economically viable without government support. Additionally, the levelized costing of renewable energy does not account for the intermittency issue, which requires conventional power plants to be kept on standby, further increasing costs.

Calculating the true cost of renewable energy is challenging and depends on various factors, including the fuel used, capital costs, operating costs, and whether it generates power at times of peak demand. A cost-benefit analysis that considers the avoided costs of fossil fuel use and carbon emissions provides a more comprehensive picture but still falls short of capturing all the hidden costs.

While renewable energy costs have been decreasing, they are still generally higher than those of fossil fuels. However, this is changing rapidly, with some forms of renewable energy, such as onshore wind and large-scale solar power, becoming more cost-competitive. Additionally, the need for subsidies in the renewable energy industry would disappear if fossil fuel prices reflected the full cost of their environmental impacts.

Fossil fuels are geopolitically important

The transition to renewable energy sources will be a long process. Fossil fuel companies are still spending billions to lock in more climate pollution. In 2018, roughly $1.2 trillion in investment went to fossil fuels, and $170 billion went to fossil fuel supply projects in the US alone.

Fossil fuel companies have discovered roughly five times more oil, gas, and coal reserves than we can afford to burn and still limit warming to 1.5°C. Even the amount of carbon found in fossil fuel production projects currently moving forward would push us past our climate targets.

The geopolitics of fossil fuels and renewables are reshaping the world. Energy researchers must grapple with the lessons of history to navigate the long road to net zero.

Fossil fuel companies are spending billions to lock in more climate pollution

The oil industry, for example, has spent billions on advertisements, public relations programs, and sponsored events to rebrand themselves as part of the solution to the climate crisis. They have also invested heavily in lobbying efforts to influence public policy and maintain high profits. This has resulted in a cycle of increased reliance on fossil fuels, more industry profits, and more damages induced by climate change.

The fossil fuel industry's bad behavior doesn't stop at carbon pollution. They have also been found to mistreat workers, with the upstream oil and gas industry having one of the highest rates of severe injuries. Additionally, burning fossil fuels creates local air pollution, increasing the risk of death from stroke, heart disease, lung cancer, and respiratory illness.

The water pollution story is no better, with oil spills and explosions wreaking havoc on water, land, and communities. Coal ash, a byproduct of burning coal, is incredibly toxic and often stored in unregulated impoundment ponds, posing a significant risk to waterways.

The transition to a clean, healthy, and just renewable energy economy is necessary to address these issues and hold fossil fuel companies accountable for their actions.

Renewable energy is intermittent and insufficient to meet energy demands

Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind are intermittent and insufficient to meet energy demands. They are referred to as intermittent energy resources because they are not constantly available and predictable. For instance, solar power is intermittent because the sun does not shine for all hours of the day in a given location. Similarly, wind power is intermittent because it depends on many external and uncontrollable factors, such as wind speed, air density, and turbine characteristics.

The intermittency of renewable energy sources poses a challenge to meeting energy demands. When demand exceeds supply, the electrical grid can become strained, potentially leading to power outages. This issue is particularly relevant for renewable energy sources, as they are often unable to generate enough power to meet peak energy demands. For example, during a period of high renewable energy production in Germany, fossil fuel plants were still producing 7.7 GWs of energy, and the excess had to be sold to neighbouring countries.

Additionally, the reliance on intermittent renewable energy sources can impact grid reliability. Traditional base-load energy sources, such as coal and nuclear power, provide a constant and reliable supply of energy. In contrast, renewable energy sources like solar and wind can be unpredictable and may not produce enough energy to meet demand. This unpredictability can lead to a delicate balance between base-load and intermittent generation, as seen in California, where the closure of a nuclear facility threatens 9% of the state's energy production.

Furthermore, the transition to renewable energy sources comes with significant costs and challenges. For instance, the construction of transmission infrastructure, such as power lines, can be extremely costly. Additionally, the environmental costs of renewable energy sources are often overlooked. For example, the materials used in wind turbines, such as steel and concrete, require a significant amount of resources and can be difficult to dispose of at the end of their lifespan. Similarly, solar panels contain toxic chemicals that can be hazardous when disposed of as waste.

While renewable energy sources have the potential to replace fossil fuels in the future, it is essential to recognize the limitations and challenges associated with their intermittency and insufficient energy production. The development of energy storage technologies and improvements in grid management can help address these challenges and move towards a more sustainable energy future.

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