Katerina Swanson
The phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles is an increasingly popular movement, with many countries and cities around the world pledging to ban the sale of new fossil-fuel vehicles at some point in the future. This is part of a wider trend of governments and consumers moving beyond gasoline to cleaner, cheaper alternatives. While some countries are aiming for a complete ban on the sale of new fossil-fuel vehicles by 2035, others are taking a more gradual approach, targeting the most polluting vehicles first and working towards a complete ban over time. Despite the growing demand for electric vehicles (EVs), there are still many gas-engine cars on the road, and pessimists argue that the exponential growth of EVs is not happening fast enough to combat the climate crisis.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Countries that have pledged to phase out the sale of fossil fuel vehicles | India, 29 other national governments, and six major automakers |
| Deadline for the phase-out | By 2040 worldwide, and by 2035 in "leading markets" |
| US government's plan to phase out fossil fuel vehicles | All new light-duty vehicles added to the government fleet to be 100% zero emissions by 2027 and all government-owned vehicles will be replaced with all-electric cars by 2035-2040 |
| California's emission requirements | 15% of new vehicles offered for sale between 2018 and 2025 to be zero-emission |
| Countries planning to ban sales of new fossil fuel vehicles | All 27 European Union (EU) countries, Japan, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, and Taiwan |
| Deadline for the ban on sales of new fossil fuel vehicles | 2035 for the EU countries, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan; 2040 for Egypt, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Taiwan; 2050 for Indonesia for all new cars sold; immediate for Ethiopia |
| US states that have committed to California's Advanced Clean Cars II (“ACC II”) regulation | Multiple states |
| Deadline for California's Advanced Clean Cars II (“ACC II”) regulation | End sales of new gas cars by 2035 |
| US EPA's proposed stringent fuel economy standards | 67% of new vehicles to be electric by 2032 |
| Lufthansa's plan for synthetic fuel | Production capacity planned to reach 8 barrels a day by 2022 |
| Germany's plan for aviation | Net-zero carbon emissions |
| Ford's pledge for global EV sales | 40% of global sales to be EVs by 2030 |
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What You'll Learn
- Electric vehicles are a minuscule percentage of cars sold, but demand is rising
- Some countries plan to ban sales of new fossil fuel vehicles by 2035
- Some cities have already taken measures to phase out fossil fuel vehicles
- The US government will end gas-powered vehicle purchases by 2035
- Automakers are increasingly offering electric vehicles
Electric vehicles are a minuscule percentage of cars sold, but demand is rising
Electric vehicles are a small percentage of cars sold globally, but demand is rising. In 2023, electric car sales increased by almost 35% compared to 2022, and sales are expected to continue to grow in 2024. Electric vehicles are key to decarbonising road transport, a sector that accounts for around one-sixth of global emissions.
In 2023, the global electric vehicle fleet consumed about 130 TWh of electricity, accounting for about 0.5% of total electricity consumption worldwide. The use of electric vehicles displaced around 0.9 Mb/d of oil in 2023, and it is predicted that by 2030, electric vehicles could displace around 8.2 Mb/d of oil. This would be in line with the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. In 2023, electric vehicles saved more than 220 million tonnes of GHG emissions globally, compared to 80 million in 2022.
The growth in electric vehicle sales is supported by national policies and incentives, as well as increasing price competition. In the United States, for example, the Biden administration has pledged to end gas-powered federal vehicle purchases by 2035, and California has implemented the Advanced Clean Cars II regulation, which aims to end sales of new gas-powered cars by 2035. In Europe, all 27 European Union countries have committed to banning the sale of new fossil-fuel cars by 2035.
The electric vehicle market is highly competitive, with new products and advancements in battery technology driving sales. In 2024, General Motors and Honda Motor Co. sold nearly 80,000 more electric vehicles than in 2023, and Hyundai Motor Group and Ford Motor Company also significantly increased their electric vehicle sales. Despite this progress, electric vehicles are not yet a global phenomenon, with sales in some countries, especially developing and emerging countries, remaining slow due to higher purchase costs and a lack of charging infrastructure.
To maximise the reduction of gasoline use and vehicle emissions, efforts must be made to help high-gasoline users switch to electric vehicles. This includes addressing the challenges faced by rural drivers, who make up a small subset of drivers but account for a significant percentage of gasoline use.
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Some countries plan to ban sales of new fossil fuel vehicles by 2035
The world is witnessing a growing trend of countries moving towards cleaner and cheaper alternatives to gasoline. As a result, several countries have planned to ban the sale of new fossil fuel vehicles by 2035.
The 27 countries of the European Union (EU) have committed to banning the sale of new fossil fuel cars by 2035. This includes Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden. In June 2022, after 16 hours of negotiations, all climate ministers of the 27 EU member states agreed to the commission's proposal to ban the sale of new internal combustion vehicles by 2035. However, Germany initially put up a last-minute roadblock and called for greater flexibility in achieving decarbonization goals.
In addition to the EU, several other countries have also set deadlines for ending the sale of new fossil fuel vehicles by 2035. These include Canada, California, New York, and Japan. China, the world's top polluter and largest auto market, has also set waypoints towards eliminating new fossil fuel cars by 2035. It aims for electric, hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles to account for a majority of sales by then.
Some countries have set even more ambitious targets, aiming to phase out fossil fuel vehicles before 2035. Norway, for instance, will only allow the sale of zero-emission vehicles from 2025. Britain, Israel, and Singapore plan to ban the sale of new vehicles with internal combustion engines by 2030.
While these bans are a step in the right direction, they may not be enough to significantly reduce gasoline use and vehicle emissions. This is because new car sales typically only account for about 6% of the total cars on the road. Therefore, additional measures are needed to help drivers who use the most gasoline ("Gasoline Superusers") switch to electric vehicles as soon as possible.
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Some cities have already taken measures to phase out fossil fuel vehicles
The transition from fossil fuel vehicles to alternative forms of transportation is well underway, with many countries and cities taking steps to phase out fossil fuel vehicles. Some cities have already taken measures to partially or entirely phase out fossil fuel vehicles, even ahead of their national governments' timelines. This is often achieved through local or regional government initiatives or legal challenges brought by citizens or civil organizations advocating for the right to clean air.
One example is Paris, which has taken a bold step by voting to ban petrol and diesel-burning vehicles by 2030 to tackle air pollution. Similarly, Oxford plans to ban emitting vehicles from its city center starting in 2020. These cities are leading the way in creating cleaner urban environments and improving the health of their citizens by reducing exposure to harmful pollution particulates and emissions.
In California, the state has implemented stringent emissions requirements for automakers, with the "Ditching Dirt Diesel" law mandating the deployment of medium and heavy-duty vehicles to improve air quality. Additionally, multiple states in the US have committed to following California's Advanced Clean Cars II regulation to end sales of new gas-powered cars by 2035.
Some cities are taking a gradual approach, starting with banning the most polluting vehicles first and then moving towards a complete ban on all fossil-fuel vehicles. This strategy allows for a smoother transition and gives time for the infrastructure and alternatives to be developed. For instance, the city of Ghent in Belgium offers a scrapping premium of €1,000 for diesel vehicles to incentivize citizens to switch to cleaner alternatives.
These local initiatives are significant steps towards reducing the environmental and health impacts of fossil fuel vehicles, and they often influence and accelerate national and international efforts to phase out fossil fuel vehicles.
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The US government will end gas-powered vehicle purchases by 2035
The US government's plan to end gas-powered vehicle purchases by 2035 is a significant step towards reducing emissions and promoting electric cars. This initiative is part of an executive order signed by President Joe Biden in December 2021. The order specifically targets light-duty vehicles, stating that all new government fleet additions in this category must be 100% zero-emissions by 2027. This is a crucial milestone in the government's broader strategy to lower emissions and transition to sustainable energy sources.
The US government owns an extensive fleet of over 650,000 vehicles and purchases approximately 50,000 new cars annually. With such a substantial vehicle inventory, the shift to electric alternatives is expected to have a considerable environmental impact. The executive order aims to reduce total federal government emissions by 65% before 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. This ambitious goal underscores the government's commitment to leading the transition to clean and sustainable energy practices.
The order also emphasizes the government's unique position as the nation's largest landowner, energy consumer, and employer. This means that the government has the power to influence and accelerate the adoption of sustainable practices across various sectors. By leveraging its purchasing power, the government can drive innovation and encourage the development of environmentally friendly technologies in the automotive industry and beyond. This initiative sets a precedent for private sector entities, encouraging them to follow suit and embrace sustainable alternatives.
The phase-out of gas-powered vehicles is part of a global trend. Many countries and cities worldwide have pledged to ban the sale of new fossil fuel vehicles, recognizing the environmental and economic benefits of cleaner alternatives. Some nations, like Ethiopia, have taken bold steps, requiring all automobiles entering the country to be electric. Others, like Japan, South Korea, and the European Union, have set phase-out dates ranging from 2035 to 2040. These collective efforts demonstrate a growing international commitment to reducing emissions and fostering a more sustainable future.
While the US federal government's plan to end gas-powered vehicle purchases by 2035 is a positive step, it is essential to acknowledge that new cars typically represent only about 6% of the total cars on the road. Therefore, additional measures are necessary to accelerate the reduction of gasoline use and vehicle emissions. This includes providing support and incentives for drivers who rely heavily on gasoline, often due to long commutes, to transition to electric vehicles. By addressing the challenges faced by these "gasoline superusers," the US can further expedite the shift towards a more sustainable transportation sector.
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Automakers are increasingly offering electric vehicles
The shift from fuel-powered cars to electric vehicles is well underway, with many countries and automakers taking steps to phase out fossil fuel vehicles and promote the adoption of electric alternatives. This transition is driven by the goal of reducing vehicle emissions and moving towards cleaner and more sustainable transportation options.
Kia, a subsidiary of Hyundai, has set a target of 1.2 million annual battery electric vehicle sales worldwide by 2030. To achieve this, Kia plans to expand its electric vehicle lineup to 14 models by 2027. Mazda, another prominent automaker, joined the electric vehicle market in 2021 with the launch of its MX-30 SUV in California. Buick, a brand under General Motors, is also transitioning to electric vehicles, with plans to introduce its first electric model in 2024 and offer an all-electric portfolio by the end of the decade.
The increasing focus on electric vehicles by automakers is not limited to passenger cars but also extends to other vehicle types. For example, Ford offers the e-Transit van and is working on electrifying its entire portfolio by 2030. Additionally, the company projects that half of the global sales of its Lincoln luxury brand will consist of zero-emissions models by the middle of the decade. This trend demonstrates that automakers are committed to offering a diverse range of electric vehicles to cater to various consumer needs and preferences.
The expansion of electric vehicle operations by automakers has the potential to accelerate the growth of electric car sales globally. As more models become available, consumers will have enhanced choices, making electric vehicles more accessible and appealing to a wider audience. This, coupled with government initiatives and regulations, such as the US government's plan to replace its fleet with electric vehicles by 2035, will further drive the adoption of electric vehicles and contribute to the phase-out of fuel-powered cars.
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Frequently asked questions
There is no definitive answer to this question. However, many countries are planning to ban the sale of new fossil fuel cars by 2035.
Fossil fuels include gasoline (petrol), diesel, kerosene, and fuel oil.
Electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming increasingly popular and are seen as a cleaner and cheaper alternative to fossil fuel cars.
Some challenges include the limited availability of precious metals needed for batteries, the high cost of sustainable aviation fuels, and the lack of charging infrastructure.
Notable examples include the European Union, the United States, Japan, Singapore, and California.
