Mercedes Mullins
Fuel prices have been steadily increasing over the past few years, with global events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the pandemic, and tensions in the Middle East causing fluctuations and driving up costs. In 2022, the national average gas price in the US peaked at $5.016 per gallon, a significant increase from the pre-pandemic average of $2.601 in 2019. While prices have since decreased, they remain higher than in previous years, with the average regular gas price in the US as of July 2, 2025, at $3.171 per gallon. This price is slightly higher than a month ago and is expected to rise further due to ongoing global tensions and conflicts.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Date | July 2, 2025 |
| Average regular gas price in the U.S. | $3.171 per gallon |
| Average regular gas price in Washington, DC | $3.14 per gallon |
| Average unleaded gas price in the UK | £134.17 per litre |
| Average diesel price in the UK | £1.4121 per litre |
| Average unleaded gas price in Northern Ireland | £128 per litre |
| Average diesel price in Northern Ireland | £134 per litre |
| WTI | $71.71 a barrel |
| Crude oil price | $60s per barrel |
| Oil price | $67 per barrel |
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What You'll Learn
Middle East tensions
Rising tensions in the Middle East have had a significant impact on fuel prices. The conflict between Israel and Iran, including airstrikes and missile strikes, has led to concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies in the region. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil exports from the Middle East, has been at the centre of these tensions.
The price of Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, experienced sharp swings, reaching a five-month high of $81.40 per barrel after the US bombed Iranian nuclear sites. However, news of a ceasefire caused prices to fall back to around $69 per barrel. These price fluctuations have far-reaching consequences for countries worldwide, affecting energy costs and making goods more expensive.
The impact of Middle East tensions on fuel prices is influenced by several factors. Firstly, the region's significance as a major oil supplier means any conflict can disrupt supply chains and impact prices. Secondly, the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is crucial for oil shipments. Concerns about Iran potentially blocking this strait have contributed to market anxiety. However, the actual risk of a complete blockade is considered low, and Iran's ability to physically block the strait is debatable due to the presence of US naval forces and pressure from its allies.
Developing economies in Asia and Africa are particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices as they heavily rely on Middle Eastern oil imports and lack financial buffers to absorb sudden price spikes. Higher fuel prices can lead to increased inflation, affecting central bank policies on interest rates. Additionally, alternative shipping routes, such as the Cape of Good Hope, are less competitive due to increased fuel consumption and emissions, further impacting the industry.
The reactions of oil-importing countries to these tensions are also crucial. For example, China, the world's biggest oil importer, can influence the market based on its purchasing decisions. Overall, the impact of Middle East tensions on fuel prices is complex and subject to various geopolitical, economic, and market factors.
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Refinery maintenance
Planning and Preparation
Developing a comprehensive maintenance schedule is critical to the success of a refinery maintenance program. This involves identifying the maintenance requirements of each piece of equipment, determining the frequency and scope of tasks, and allocating resources accordingly. The schedule should be based on equipment manufacturer recommendations, industry best practices, and the refinery's operational needs. Regular reviews and updates are necessary to keep the schedule relevant and effective.
Critical Equipment Identification
Prioritising critical equipment is essential. This includes equipment that is vital to the refinery's operation, has a significant impact on production, safety, or the environment, or is prone to failure. Once identified, maintenance tasks can be prioritised based on the equipment's criticality, condition, and operational requirements.
Spare Parts and Resources
Ensuring the availability of spare parts and resources is crucial to efficient maintenance. Refineries should maintain an inventory of critical spare parts, tools, and equipment to minimise downtime and ensure timely completion of maintenance tasks. Developing a procurement plan helps ensure the timely delivery of required resources.
Predictive Maintenance Techniques
Implementing predictive maintenance techniques can help identify potential issues before they become major problems. Routine inspections, condition monitoring, vibration analysis, and thermography are some techniques used to detect signs of wear and tear and predict maintenance needs.
Computerized Maintenance Management Systems (CMMS)
Integrating a CMMS can improve overall maintenance management. Such systems provide a centralised view of maintenance activities, allowing for efficient planning, resource allocation, and decision-making. CMMS software integrates various components, including production scheduling, cost systems, monitors, scanners, and asset tags, providing a comprehensive view of the refinery's operations.
Automation and Data-Driven Decisions
Automation is increasingly impacting the oil and gas industry, improving efficiency, safety, and maintenance capabilities. Weather monitoring systems, for example, provide real-time data on potential emergency maintenance needs due to natural disasters. Additionally, utilising data-driven approaches, such as Quantitative Reliability Optimisation (QRO), empowers refinery leaders to make more informed decisions regarding reliability and operations.
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Summer-blend gasoline switch
Summer-blend gasoline, also known as summer-grade gasoline, is a type of fuel that has a lower Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) than winter-blend gasoline. RVP is a measure of how easily a liquid will turn into a vapour at higher temperatures. Summer-blend gasoline has a lower volatility than winter-grade gasoline, which helps to limit evaporative emissions that normally increase with warm weather and cause unhealthy ground-level ozone. This is why summer-blend gasoline is used during the warmer months of the year.
The transition to low-RVP gasoline typically occurs over several spring months, with federally mandated dates for the switch to summer-blend gasoline falling between May 1 and September 15 for refiners and terminals, and June 1 to September 15 for gasoline retailers. In California, the switchover dates are earlier, and summer-grade gasoline must be in use for a longer period.
Summer-blend gasoline is more expensive to produce than winter-blend gasoline due to the use of pricier additives and a longer blending process. This results in higher gas prices during the summer months. The increased energy content of summer-blend gasoline, typically about 1.7% higher than winter-blend gasoline, offers a slight boost in fuel economy, which is beneficial for summer activities such as fishing and dirt-track racing.
The switch from winter-blend to summer-blend gasoline is one of the major factors contributing to seasonal fuel price increases in May. However, prices typically fall in mid-to-late September as gas stations transition to cheaper winter-blend gasoline. The difference in cost between summer-blend and winter-blend gasoline can impact a driver's budget, with summer-blend fuel costing up to 15 cents more per gallon, excluding the increased cost due to summer fuel demand, which can vary between 5 to 15 cents per gallon depending on the region.
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U.S. airstrikes
In July 2025, there were reports of Israel conducting airstrikes in Gaza, which resulted in the elimination of Hamas' naval commander, Ramzi Ramadan Abd Ali Saleh, and other members of the Palestinian militant group. This development occurred ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the United States, where he met with President Donald Trump and other American officials. The timing of the airstrikes and the subsequent trip underscored the ongoing collaboration between the two nations.
The U.S. has also conducted airstrikes in Iran, targeting Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025. These airstrikes created a backdrop for the reemergence of Reza Pahlavi, the 64-year-old crown prince of Tehran's last royal dynasty, ousted during the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Pahlavi, based in the United States, has been actively preparing for potential political transitions in Iran, engaging with lawmakers in London and promoting a bill in the U.S. Congress, the Maximum Support Act for the Iranian people, aimed at supporting protests in Iran.
While the direct impact of these airstrikes on fuel prices may have been short-lived, they highlight the complex interplay between geopolitical events and energy markets. The U.S. airstrikes in the Middle East, whether conducted independently or in collaboration with allies, can shape the political landscape and influence regional stability, which, in turn, can have lasting implications for energy security and fuel prices in the region and beyond.
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Russia's invasion of Ukraine
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 caused a sharp rise in fuel prices worldwide. Russia's role as the world's second-largest producer of crude oil meant that the conflict had an immediate impact on energy markets. The price of diesel and gasoline, both of which are connected to the price of crude oil, increased significantly. In the US, gasoline prices rose by 33 cents per gallon since the beginning of 2022, and the producer price index (PPI) for gasoline jumped 85% in June 2022 compared to the previous year.
The impact of the invasion was also felt in Europe, where Russia supplies about a third of the continent's crude oil. UK petrol prices hit a record average of 155p per litre, and energy bills were expected to soar as a result of the surge in oil and gas prices. The Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte acknowledged Europe's dependence on Russian energy supplies, stating that forcing European companies to quit doing business with Russia would have "enormous ramifications".
The US and its allies considered a ban on Russian oil supplies as part of their response to the invasion, but this proved challenging due to the potential impact on the global economy. Despite the sanctions imposed on Russia, its fossil fuel earnings in the third year of the invasion reached EUR 242 billion, and its stronghold over new markets solidified, with China, India, and Turkey being the biggest buyers.
The conflict also affected the prices of other commodities, such as wheat, barley, sunflower seed oil, and corn, as Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of these goods. Additionally, Russia's role as the world's largest producer of palladium, a metal used in semiconductor chips and catalytic converters, disrupted the supply of these materials.
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Frequently asked questions
Tensions in the Middle East caused the average cost of petrol to increase by 2p per litre in the UK. Unleaded fuel went up by 2p since 1 June, and diesel by 2.8p.
Fears that Iran might block oil exports along the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global crude oil passes, caused uncertainty in the market and pushed prices up.
The national average for a gallon of regular fuel went up by more than 10 cents to $3.26 in April. In July, the average price was $3.171, down from $3.500 a year prior.
Refinery maintenance and the switch to summer-blend gasoline are factors that caused the increase.
During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the average price of unleaded fuel hit 191.53p per litre, and diesel climbed to 199.21p per litre.
