Climate Change: War's Unseen Fuel

Climate change is expected to cause an increase in wars and displacement, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. Food scarcity, water shortages, and rising temperatures will lead to social disruption, violent conflict, and mass migration. These issues will be further exacerbated by the region's high import rate of grain, making it vulnerable to market shifts and climatic changes in other regions. Terrorist organisations like ISIS capitalise on climate change to recruit new members, targeting impoverished farmers and offering them food and salaries. Experts warn that the combination of these factors will result in a new era of climate war.

Droughts and crop failures

The impact of drought on agriculture is significant. In 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture declared a natural disaster across 2,245 counties due to drought, affecting 71% of the United States. Globally, drought struck several major breadbasket regions in the same year, causing food price instability. In countries facing food insecurity, spikes in food prices can lead to social unrest, migration, and even famine.

Crop failures are becoming increasingly likely due to the changing climate. Seventy-two percent of today's staple crops, including maize, wheat, soybeans, and rice, are grown in just five countries, in regions known as breadbaskets. These regions have historically supported agricultural production due to their suitable climates. However, with rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, the future of food production in these regions is uncertain. Models predict that by 2030, crop yield failures will be 4.5 times higher than current rates, and by 2050, the likelihood of failures increases to 25 times the current rate.

Water scarcity is a critical factor contributing to crop failure. Irrigation can help mitigate the lack of rain, but groundwater stores are already depleted in many areas. Additionally, the timing of water availability is important. Warmer winters result in less precipitation falling as snow, impacting water management systems that rely on snowmelt. Climate change is also causing rainy seasons to start later, limiting the possibility of planting multiple rounds of crops in a single season, reducing farmer profits, and encouraging land clearing for additional farming.

The impact of droughts and crop failures on food security is a significant concern. As food prices rise due to reduced crop yields, communities may face limited access to food, leading to social unrest and conflict. Additionally, the availability of water for household use, transportation, and power generation may also be affected, further exacerbating the challenges faced by communities.

Extremist groups exploiting climate change

Extremist groups are increasingly exploiting climate change to further their aims, from scaling recruitment efforts to advancing territorial offensives.

Recruitment

Climate change is creating the conditions for extremist groups to recruit at scale. The destabilisation of traditional livelihoods is opening pathways for extremist groups to recruit individuals seeking stability and support. Extremists are targeting vulnerable communities, particularly those grappling with economic and environmental hardships, and exploiting their disillusionment with governments perceived as unresponsive to their urgent needs.

In the Sahel region, for example, violent extremist groups such as Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State Sahel Province (IS-Sahel) are exploiting climate-induced resource scarcity and the state's weakened capacity to manage environmental and security threats. As agricultural productivity declines and communities dependent on farming and herding struggle to sustain themselves, extremists are offering alternative sources of support, such as food and basic resources, to win over local populations.

Territorial Control

Extremist groups are also using climate change to gain territorial control. They are deliberately destroying water infrastructure to control water accessibility and create dependency among local populations. By fostering dependency on their control of scarce resources, extremist groups can expand their influence and establish parallel governance structures.

In addition, extremist groups are targeting mining sites and miners to wield greater influence and generate revenue. By attacking or threatening miners, they can extort funds and control mining operations, further destabilising the region and preventing governments from benefiting economically from these sites.

Conflict Exacerbation

Climate change is exacerbating conflicts between communities. Rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, and shifting seasonal patterns are straining agricultural productivity, deepening vulnerabilities among communities dependent on farming and herding. As essential resources like water and arable land become scarcer, competition over resources is intensifying, leading to conflicts between farmer and herder communities. Extremist groups are exploiting these conflicts to further entrench their influence and advance their agendas.

As the impacts of climate change become more severe, extremist groups are finding new opportunities to exploit vulnerabilities and advance their goals. It is crucial for governments and the international community to recognise these linkages and address the root causes of climate change and conflict to prevent further instability and human suffering.

Rising temperatures and rainfall changes

Rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns are key factors in understanding how climate change can fuel wars and social conflict. As global temperatures increase, the Earth's water cycle is intensified, leading to more frequent and intense storms, as well as drying in some regions. This results in an increased risk of flooding in storm-affected areas and a heightened risk of drought in regions located away from storm tracks.

The impact of these changes in precipitation patterns can have significant social and economic consequences. For instance, in the contiguous United States, annual precipitation has increased at a rate of 0.2 inches per decade since 1901, with extreme precipitation events becoming more frequent and intense. This trend is expected to continue as the planet warms, leading to more intense precipitation events and an increased risk of flooding.

The combination of more intense precipitation and an increased frequency of extreme weather events can lead to overall changes in precipitation levels, with some regions experiencing both flooding and drought conditions. This unpredictability and variability in water availability can have far-reaching implications for agriculture, water resource management, and social stability.

Droughts, which are already making conflicts more likely, will become more common as temperatures rise. This is evident in regions like Chad, Nigeria, Niger, and Cameroon, where droughts and water scarcity have contributed to conflicts that have forced approximately 2.4 million people to flee their homes.

The complex interplay between rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns has serious consequences for societies around the world. As some regions experience increased flooding while others face water scarcity, the pressure on communities and governments to adapt and manage these challenges can lead to social tensions and even wars.

Food and fuel insecurity

The United Nations has warned that climate chaos and food crises are increasing threats to global peace. In regions like war-torn Gaza, Syria, and Myanmar, hunger and conflict are already devastatingly intertwined. Climate change also exacerbates competition and tensions over scarce resources, such as water and land, between herders and farmers in regions like West and Central Africa.

Fuel insecurity is another pressing issue. The U.S. military, for example, is the world's largest consumer of oil and a top greenhouse gas emitter. While the Defense Department has reduced its fossil fuel consumption, its significant contribution to climate change has received little attention. As fossil fuel consumption drives climate change, the very real possibility of mass migration, refugee crises, and political instability looms, creating conditions that could spark wars.

As the world grapples with these challenges, it is crucial to address the interconnectedness of climate change, food and fuel insecurity, and conflict. By recognizing these links, we can work towards mitigating the worst impacts of climate change and fostering global peace and stability.

Migration and social disruption

The impact of climate change on migration can take various forms, including circular migration, temporary or permanent displacement, and planned permanent resettlement. Climate-related migration can occur within countries or internationally, with internal migration being more common. Extreme environmental conditions, such as the severe drought in Syria from 2006 to 2007, can contribute to the collapse of agriculture and subsequent rural-to-urban migration.

The disruption of social ties due to migration can have adverse consequences for both those who migrate and those who remain. Migrants may face social isolation and marginalization in their new communities, while those left behind may experience increased depression and other mental health issues. Additionally, the obligation to provide financial and emotional support to family members who remain in places of origin can be a burden for migrants.

Furthermore, climate change can intersect with political, economic, and demographic factors to influence population mobility and vulnerability. For example, the Syrian civil conflict was triggered by a combination of climate change, restrictive economic policies, and refugee influx.

The impact of migration on social disruption is complex and multifaceted. Enhancing community resilience and social cohesion, both before and after disasters, can help mitigate the adverse mental health consequences of migration and displacement. Additionally, maintaining and strengthening social ties through technology and remittances can provide important social and emotional support for those affected by climate change and migration.

In conclusion, migration and social disruption are key mechanisms through which climate change can fuel wars. As climate change intensifies, understanding and addressing the social impacts of migration will become increasingly crucial for global peace and stability.

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