Rajan Wilcox
In 2022, there were claims on social media that the US would run out of diesel fuel in 25 days. This was deemed false by experts, who clarified that the 25-day figure is a supply that is regularly replenished by production and imports. While the US faced a diesel shortage, it was not expected to run out of diesel fuel in such a short period.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Country | United States |
| Days of Diesel Supply | 25 |
| Date of Prediction | October 27, 2022 |
| Date of Predicted Diesel Run Out | November 21, 2022 |
| Source of Prediction | Tucker Carlson, Fox News host |
| Refuted By | Chris Higgenbotham (EIA spokesperson), Patrick De Haan (GasBuddy analyst), Ed Hirs (University of Houston lecturer), Carey King (University of Texas researcher), Jeff Barron (EIA spokesperson) |
| Refutation Reasoning | The 25-day figure doesn't account for ongoing diesel production and imports, it's an industry benchmark for supply and demand, and supply is continually replenished. |
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What You'll Learn
The 25-day supply figure is typical for this time of year
In 2022, some social media users claimed that the US would run out of diesel fuel in 25 days. However, this claim was false. While it is true that the US had an acute shortage of diesel fuel, the 25-day supply figure is typical for that time of year.
The "days of supply" metric only measures the amount of distillate in storage compared to estimates of national demand. It does not account for ongoing diesel production or imports, which refill supply. The figure is used as an industry benchmark to assess overall supply and demand balances.
According to Patrick De Haan, a fuel analyst for GasBuddy, the 25-day figure is not a day-by-day countdown to zero; it changes only by fractions of a percentage point each week. De Haan attributed the low supply to seasonal maintenance, the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the US's competition with Europe for energy as Western countries reduced their consumption of Russian gas amid the war in Ukraine.
University of Houston energy lecturer Ed Hirs compared the "days of supply" figure to a grocery store carrying a week's worth of milk, stating that the supply is always being replenished. He noted that when the inventory was at 35 days the previous year, there was no diesel shortage, and the same would be true for 25 days of supply.
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The US diesel supply is continually replenished
In 2022, some social media users and Fox News host Tucker Carlson claimed that the US would run out of diesel fuel in 25 days. However, this claim is false. The US diesel supply is continually replenished through domestic production and international imports, ensuring that the country does not run out of this essential fuel.
The United States has a robust system in place to maintain its diesel supply. Firstly, the country boasts some of the largest and most advanced refineries in the world, enabling substantial domestic production. Texas, North Dakota, and Alaska are major crude oil sources, with Texas's Permian Basin being the most prolific producer.
In addition to domestic production, the US also relies on key international sources to meet its diesel demand. Canada is the largest supplier, thanks to its proximity and robust oil sands industry. Saudi Arabia, with its vast oil reserves, and Mexico, with its growing refinery capacity, are also significant players in the US diesel import market. These imports are transported via pipelines and trucks, ensuring a steady and reliable flow of diesel across the country.
To further safeguard its diesel supply, the US government maintains strategic reserves, such as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The SPR is a critical component of the US energy strategy, containing millions of barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns along the Gulf Coast. These reserves can be tapped during emergencies to stabilize diesel supply and are strategically located across the country for rapid response to disruptions.
While there may be fluctuations in supply and demand, causing temporary strain on the system, the US diesel supply is not at risk of imminent depletion. The "days of supply" metric, which was referenced in the false claim, only measures the amount of distillate in storage compared to national demand and does not consider ongoing production and imports. As such, the US diesel supply is continually replenished, ensuring a reliable source of fuel for the nation's essential industries and infrastructure.
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The 25-day figure doesn't account for ongoing diesel production
In October 2022, Tucker Carlson of Fox News claimed that the US would run out of diesel fuel in 25 days. This assertion was based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and was widely circulated on social media. However, this claim was quickly debunked by experts and fact-checking organizations, who stated that the US was not facing an imminent diesel shortage.
The 25-day figure cited by Carlson and others refers to the "days of supply" metric, which represents the amount of distillate fuel in storage compared to the estimated national demand. This number fluctuates and is typically lower during certain times of the year. For example, the figure had risen to 26.6 days as of November 11, 2022.
Importantly, the 25-day figure does not account for ongoing diesel production and imports. The US continues to produce diesel fuel at refineries and import it from other countries, ensuring that the supply is continually replenished. While the supply of diesel fuel in the US was lower than average at the time, it was not indicative of an impending shortage.
Ed Hirs, an energy fellow at the University of Houston, compared the "days of supply" figure to a grocery store's inventory of bread, which is regularly restocked. He stated that just because a grocery store only has a day or two of bread supply doesn't mean they will run out soon. Similarly, Carey King, an energy researcher at the University of Texas at Austin, noted that the US could only run out of diesel if there were no more diesel production, which is not the case.
Additionally, the 25-day figure doesn't consider the measures that can be taken to mitigate supply issues. For example, the Biden administration was considering limiting fuel exports to lower consumer prices and ensure sufficient domestic supply. Furthermore, seasonal maintenance at refineries and competition with Europe for energy sources also contributed to the lower supply levels.
In summary, the 25-day figure for diesel fuel supply in the US does not account for ongoing diesel production, imports, and potential mitigating measures. While the supply levels were lower than average at the time, it did not indicate an imminent shortage, and diesel fuel production and imports help to ensure that the US does not run out.
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The US diesel supply is “very tight”
The US diesel supply is “very tight,” according to Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. De Haan has attributed this crunch to several factors, including seasonal maintenance, the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the US's competition with Europe for energy as Western countries wean themselves off Russian gas amid the war in Ukraine. The sanctions on Russian oil have resulted in a current supply crunch, and refineries' seasonal maintenance has also played a big part. While diesel supplies started dwindling in the US, demand was at its highest point in two years.
The 25-day figure that sparked concerns of a diesel shortage in the US is an industry benchmark to look at overall supply and demand balances. It is not a day-by-day countdown to zero; it changes only fractions of a percentage point each week. The figure does not consider distillate fuel that will continue to be produced at US refineries and imported from other countries. The “days of supply” metric only measures the amount of distillate in storage compared to estimates of national demand.
The US diesel supply is replenished by production and imports. The US is set to receive at least two ships carrying a total of some 90,000 metric tons of diesel and jet fuel that have been diverted from their original destinations in Europe to the East Coast. The Biden administration has been considering limiting fuel exports to lower consumer prices.
The immediate consequences of this shortage will be higher prices. People could pay higher prices at the pump, and energy prices could climb.
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Diesel fuel can only be stored for 6-12 months
In November 2022, Tucker Carlson of Fox News claimed that the US would run out of diesel fuel in 25 days. This was fact-checked and deemed false. The 25-day figure is used as an industry benchmark to assess supply and demand and does not consider the distillate fuel that is continually being produced and imported.
Now, onto the question of how long diesel fuel can be stored. Generally, diesel fuel can be stored for up to 6 months to 1 year without significant degradation if stored in a clean, dry, and cool environment. Underground storage tanks are recommended as they keep the tank safer and the temperatures cooler, thus prolonging the life of the diesel fuel.
However, if the fuel is exposed to high temperatures, moisture, or other contaminants, its shelf life can be significantly reduced. The three main threats to the quality of diesel fuel are hydrolysis, microbial growth, and oxidation. When diesel is exposed to water, it causes a hydrolysis reaction, breaking down the diesel and making it susceptible to microbial growth. Microbes produce acids that degrade diesel fuel, clog filters, restrict fluid flow, corrode tanks, and damage engines.
Oxidation is a chemical reaction that occurs when diesel fuel is introduced to oxygen, creating high acid values and unwanted gum, sludge, and sediment. To prevent this, biocides can be used to stop the growth of bacteria and fungi. Additionally, the use of fuel stabilizers and anti-fungals can help prolong the life of diesel fuel.
Overall, while diesel fuel can typically be stored for 6-12 months, taking proper precautions and using the correct storage methods can extend this timeframe.
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Frequently asked questions
No, the US will not run out of diesel fuel in 25 days. This claim was made by Tucker Carlson on Fox News and has been proven to be false.
The 25-day figure is a supply that is continually being replenished by production and imports. It is used as an industry benchmark to look at overall supply and demand balances.
The supply of diesel fuel in the US is "very tight", and the system is "under strain". This means that people may have to pay higher prices at the pump and energy prices may climb.
