Rajan Wilcox
As of 2024, the United States is facing diesel fuel shortages, with some regions experiencing temporary outages. While the US is not expected to run out of diesel fuel completely, low stockpiles have led to higher prices and concerns about the impact on essential services and industries that rely heavily on diesel. The diesel fuel shortages in the US have been attributed to various factors, including reduced oil production, changes in railroad activity, increased demand, and the shift towards alternative fuels. The availability and price of diesel fuel have also been affected by global events, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the European Union's ban on Russian diesel imports. While the future of diesel fuel in the US remains uncertain, it is clear that the country is navigating a complex energy landscape with potential short-term challenges.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Date of data | 28 October 2022 |
| Number of days' worth of diesel in the US | 25.8 days |
| Number of days' worth of diesel in 2021 | 35 days |
| Number of days' worth of diesel in 2019 | 26 days |
| Average US diesel price as of 21 April 2025 | $3.555 per gallon |
| US on-highway diesel fuel price in 2025 | $3.44 per gallon |
| US on-highway diesel fuel price in 2026 | $3.53 per gallon |
| Highest recorded average price for diesel in the US | $5.816 per gallon (June 19, 2022) |
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What You'll Learn
Experts say the US won't run out of diesel fuel
Fossil fuels, including diesel, are a limited resource, and the world is consuming them at an alarming rate. However, experts say the US won't run out of diesel fuel.
As of 28 October 2022, the US had 25.8 days' worth of diesel in its stores, according to the EIA. This is a lower supply than in previous weeks, and some social media users suggested that no diesel fuel would be available in less than a month. However, this is a misinterpretation of the data, according to EIA spokesperson Jeff Barron. He explained that the figure represents current consumption without considering imported oil or refinery production, which constantly refills supply.
University of Houston energy lecturer Ed Hirs compared the situation to a grocery store carrying a week's worth of milk. He noted that the inventory was higher last year at 35 days, and they didn't run out of diesel then. Carey King, an energy researcher at the University of Texas at Austin, echoed this sentiment, stating that the US could only run out of diesel if production stopped, but diesel is produced daily.
While there may be short-term regional shortages, the fuel supply chain is dynamic, and suppliers work to fill gaps in supply. Patrick De Haan, a fuel analyst for GasBuddy, clarified that the days' worth of supply figure doesn't indicate imminent outages. Instead, it reflects the challenge refiners face in keeping up with demand. De Haan acknowledged that some regions, like the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, could experience tight supply, but individual station outages don't represent broader shortages.
In summary, while low stockpiles may lead to higher diesel prices, particularly in regions with increased demand, experts assert that the US will not run out of diesel fuel. Their confidence stems from the dynamic nature of the fuel supply chain and the continuous production and replenishment of diesel supplies.
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Diesel fuel production and demand
Diesel fuel is the second-largest transportation fuel used in California, accounting for 17% of total fuel sales, with gasoline taking the top spot. In 2024, 3.5 billion gallons of diesel were sold in California alone. Diesel engines are used in nearly all heavy-duty trucks, delivery vehicles, buses, trains, ships, boats, barges, farm and construction equipment, and military vehicles. Diesel is the preferred fuel choice for these industries because it has 12% more energy per gallon than gasoline and has fuel properties that prolong engine life.
In 2006, ultra-low-sulfur diesel was introduced nationally, allowing for near-zero heavy-duty diesel engines. Biodiesel was introduced to California in 2000, and renewable diesel in 2012. Renewable diesel is primarily made from used cooking oil and inedible animal fats left over from processing meat. It meets the same fuel quality specifications as petroleum diesel and can be used in existing diesel engines and refueling infrastructure without the need for any retrofits or upfits.
While the US is not running out of diesel fuel, low stockpiles have led to higher prices. As of October 28, 2022, the US had 25.8 days' worth of diesel in its stores, a lower supply than in previous weeks, according to the EIA. This has been misinterpreted by some in the media and on social media to mean that the country will run out of diesel fuel imminently. However, this number does not account for oil that is imported or produced by refineries, which refill supply. It is a measurement of supply and demand, indicating that refiners are struggling to keep up with demand.
Demand for diesel fuel has increased due to factors such as the Mississippi River drought, which has forced barge freight onto trucks, and a potential rail strike. In the Northeast, the demand for heating oil during the winter months also impacts diesel supply. While short-term regional shortages may occur, suppliers will act to fill in any gaps in the supply, and governments can also intervene to help expedite the transport of fuel.
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Diesel prices
As of 28 October 2022, the US had 25.8 days' worth of diesel in its stores, a lower supply than in previous weeks, according to the EIA. This has led to concerns about a potential diesel shortage and rising prices. However, experts have clarified that the US is not running out of diesel fuel, but low stockpiles can lead to higher diesel prices.
The EIA's data accounts for current consumption without considering the oil that is imported or produced by refineries, which constantly refill the supply. While there may be short-term regional shortages, the fuel supply chain is dynamic, and suppliers will work to fill in any gaps. Governments can also intervene to facilitate the transport of fuel, as seen through emergency waivers issued by governors.
The low stockpiles of diesel are a result of increased demand and a Mississippi River drought, which has shifted barge freight to trucks, coupled with a potential rail strike. The Northeast region, heading into winter, will experience higher demand for heating oil, further impacting diesel supply. These factors contribute to higher diesel prices, especially in regions with low stocks.
The situation is not indicative of an impending supply chain collapse, as some social media posts have suggested. The interpretation of the EIA data by social media users, claiming that the US will run out of diesel in a month, is a misunderstanding. Experts emphasize that diesel production occurs daily, and the supply is constantly being replenished.
While the low stockpiles do not signify an immediate outage, it is a sign that refiners are struggling to keep up with demand. The number of days of diesel supply is an indicator of the balance between supply and demand, and the current low levels can lead to higher prices. The fuel analyst for the fuel price-tracker GasBuddy, Patrick De Haan, explains that the situation is "uncomfortable" but not unprecedented, with the number of days of supply dropping to similar levels in 2019.
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The impact of a diesel shortage
The US has been facing a diesel supply shortage since 2022. This has been caused by a combination of factors, including disinvestment in refining capacity during the pandemic, elevated natural gas prices reducing refining margins, and limits on the export of refined products from the EU to Russia following the Ukraine war.
Certain regions, such as the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, are particularly vulnerable to diesel shortages. These areas have already started fuel rationing, and the low supply has been exacerbated by increased demand during the winter months. The Biden administration is considering ways to increase emergency fuel stockpiles in these regions.
The diesel shortage has also impacted the availability of heating oil, which is crucial during the colder months. As a result, prices for heating oil are expected to increase, affecting households that rely on it for warmth.
To mitigate the impact of the diesel shortage, the US has explored alternative fuel sources, such as biodiesel and renewable diesel. These fuels have started to be offered at fuel stations, providing consumers with more options. However, their mass application is still limited due to the developing market and lower production capacities compared to conventional diesel.
While a complete outage of diesel fuel is unlikely, the low stockpiles have caused concern among the public. Short-term regional shortages may occur, but suppliers are expected to rally and fill in the gaps in supply. The dynamic nature of the fuel supply chain means that while diesel may be scarce in some areas, it will still be delivered, albeit at higher costs.
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The future of diesel fuel
Diesel fuel has been crucial in various industries for decades. However, the future of diesel fuel in the US is uncertain.
In 2015, Volkswagen's emissions scandal brought the question of diesel's future in the US into sharp focus. The scandal stirred controversy and raised doubts about the viability of diesel as a fuel source in the country. While some experts argued that diesel vehicles could be made cleaner and more efficient, others questioned whether diesel engines could help the US meet its air quality and energy goals.
Fast forward to 2022, and the US found itself facing low diesel stockpiles and high diesel prices, particularly in the Northeast. This situation led to concerns about potential regional fuel shortages and short-term price hikes. However, experts clarified that the US was not running out of diesel fuel, and that the low stockpiles were due to a dynamic supply chain that could adapt to gaps in supply.
As the world moves towards cleaner energy sources, the stability and viability of diesel fuel are being questioned. The US transportation sector's daily diesel consumption is significant, and a shift to alternative fuels could impact the economy and specific industries. While diesel fuel usage is projected to gradually decrease, it remains essential for many industries and is expected to grow in the next few years due to the current lack of efficient alternatives.
Technological advancements and innovations, such as electric vehicles (EVs), hybrid engines, and renewable fuels, pose a challenge to diesel's dominance. Governments worldwide are enforcing stricter rules to cut air pollution, and organizations are promoting eco-friendly technologies to address environmental concerns. The transportation industry is at a "fork in the road," with carriers choosing between newer, more efficient diesel trucks or alternative propulsion systems. Renewable biodiesel is becoming an increasingly popular option, offering a sustainable and cleaner-burning fuel source.
In summary, while diesel fuel has been a crucial energy source for various industries, its future in the US is uncertain. The shift towards cleaner energy alternatives, technological advancements, and stricter environmental regulations are challenging diesel's dominance. However, diesel remains essential for many industries, and its usage is expected to decline gradually rather than immediately. The widespread adoption of renewable or sustainable transportation systems will depend on infrastructure viability.
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Frequently asked questions
According to MET Group and BP, the world will run out of fossil fuels in around 50 years. However, this number could change as we continue to discover new pockets of crude oil. Diesel fuel will be available for the foreseeable future, but the type of diesel (biodiesel) and its cost may vary.
In 2022, the US faced low diesel stockpiles, which led to higher diesel prices, especially in the Northeast. While this did not mean that the country would run out of diesel, it caused short-term regional shortages and higher prices.
The diesel shortage in 2022 was caused by a combination of increased demand and low stockpiles. The Mississippi River drought forced barge freight onto trucks, and a potential rail strike also contributed to the increased demand for diesel fuel.
Diesel fuel shortages are influenced by a variety of factors, including supply and demand, refinery maintenance, railroad activity, international sanctions, and war efforts. These factors can impact the availability and price of diesel fuel.
Diesel fuel availability significantly impacts economic sectors and the broader economy. A shortage of diesel fuel can affect critical societal functions, such as emergency response vehicles and backup power sources for hospitals and data centers. It can also drive up prices and disrupt manufacturing and export activities.
