Fossil Fuel Companies: Early Climate Change Knowledge

Fossil fuel companies have been aware of the connection between their products and climate change for decades, with evidence suggesting that oil industry executives understood the link as early as 1959. Despite this knowledge, many of these companies have engaged in campaigns of misinformation and denial, spreading doubt about the scientific consensus on climate change and working to block climate action. For example, Exxon was aware of climate change as early as 1977 but spent decades refusing to publicly acknowledge it and even promoted climate misinformation. Similarly, leaked documents show that other major fossil fuel companies have deliberately deceived the public for almost 30 years about the realities and risks of climate change. These companies have a responsibility to come clean about their role in the climate crisis and work towards mitigating their impact on the environment.

Exxon's own scientists warned of the dangers of fossil fuels

Exxons' Own Scientists Warned of the Dangers of Fossil Fuels

In the 1970s, Exxon's own scientists were warning the company of the dangers of fossil fuels. In July 1977, senior scientist James Black told Exxon's management committee that there was a "general scientific agreement" that the burning of fossil fuels was likely influencing global climate through the release of carbon dioxide. He added that Exxon had a "time window of five to ten years" to make decisions regarding energy strategies before the need became critical.

In 1978, Black updated his presentation for a broader audience of Exxon scientists and managers. He warned that a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would increase average global temperatures by 2-3 degrees Celsius, with more significant increases at the poles. He predicted heavier rainfall in some regions and the transformation of other places into deserts.

Exxon responded by launching its own research program into carbon dioxide and its impact on the Earth. The company assembled a team of climate modellers and sampled carbon dioxide in the air and ocean. Exxon's research confirmed Black's predictions and contributed to a growing scientific consensus on climate change.

Despite these warnings, Exxon became a leader in campaigns of confusion, helping to create the Global Climate Coalition to question the scientific basis for concern about climate change. The company also worked to prevent the US from signing the Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty to control greenhouse gases.

Exxon's Response

ExxonMobil has denied that its early statements were conclusive. Spokesperson Allan Jeffers claimed that the company has "been involved in climate research" for years and that the recent investigations are based on the "selective use of materials."

However, Exxon's early understanding of climate change and its subsequent efforts to block solutions have drawn comparisons to the tobacco industry's lies about the health risks of smoking. Like the tobacco industry, Exxon spread misinformation and worked with consultants to develop strategies for communicating with the public.

The Impact of Exxon's Actions

Experts agree that Exxon's deception has caused significant damage. Half of the greenhouse gas emissions in our atmosphere were released after 1988, when NASA scientist James Hansen first warned Congress about global warming. According to Greenpeace, Exxon has spent over $30 million on think tanks that promote climate denial.

Exxon's actions have also led to legal repercussions. The company faces over 20 lawsuits brought by states and local governments for damages caused by climate change. In addition, a recent study in the journal *Science* analyzed Exxon's climate studies from 1977 to 2003 and found that the company produced research that was at least as accurate as that of independent academics and governments. This research could provide evidence for the lawsuits against Exxon and the broader fossil fuel industry.

Exxon's research was accurate and predicted climate change

ExxonMobil's research on climate change was accurate and predicted climate change. The company's internal projections on the impact of fossil fuels on climate change were very accurate, even surpassing those of some academic and governmental scientists. Exxon projected that fossil fuel emissions would lead to 0.20 degrees Celsius of global warming per decade, with a margin of error of 0.04 degrees — a trend that has been proven largely accurate.

Exxon's research was so advanced that it even surpassed the projections of NASA scientist James Hansen, which he presented to the U.S. Congress in 1988. Exxon's models and analyses projecting global warming from carbon dioxide emissions over the coming decades were remarkably reliable. The company's scientists correctly dismissed the possibility of a coming ice age, accurately predicted that human-caused global warming would first be detectable in the year 2000, plus or minus five years, and reasonably estimated how much CO2 would lead to dangerous warming.

Exxon's research on climate change dates back to at least 1977, when its senior scientist James Black informed the company's management committee that there was general scientific agreement that the burning of fossil fuels was likely influencing the global climate through carbon dioxide release. A year later, Black warned that doubling CO2 gases in the atmosphere would increase average global temperatures by two or three degrees, a number consistent with today's scientific consensus. He also warned that Exxon had a time window of five to ten years before hard decisions regarding changes in energy strategies might become critical.

Despite these accurate internal projections, Exxon spent decades refusing to publicly acknowledge climate change and even promoting climate misinformation. This has led to allegations that the company sought to mislead the public about the industry's role in climate change, drawing increasing scrutiny in recent years, including lawsuits and a high-profile U.S. House committee investigation.

Exxon's public stance was hostile to its own findings

ExxonMobil, the corporate descendant of Humble Oil, has been aware of the link between fossil fuels and climate change since at least the 1950s. In 1957, Humble Oil scientists identified the burning of fossil fuels as a contributor to the rise of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere.

In 1977, Exxon scientist James Black told the company's top executives that fossil fuel usage was releasing enough carbon dioxide to change the planet's climate. Two years later, in 1979, an internal Exxon memo noted that the buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere would, "bring about dramatic changes in the world's environment." Exxon's own scientists were at the forefront of this research, and their dire predictions turned out to be frighteningly accurate.

Despite this, Exxon launched an extensive and sinister campaign of climate denial, undermining the work and the warnings of its own scientists. Exxon was publicly promoting views that its own scientists knew were wrong. This was immoral and has greatly set back efforts to address climate change.

In 2015, investigative journalists uncovered that ExxonMobil had known that burning fossil fuels would lead to potentially catastrophic climate impacts as early as the late 1970s. Subsequent reporting showed that the company, and its oil and gas industry peers, likely knew about these impacts as early as the 1950s.

In January 2023, Harvard researchers published a new report that showed that not only did Exxon know about climate change, but they were predicting the exact amount of global warming we're now experiencing with remarkable accuracy. Exxon's projections had an average "skill score" of 72 percent, plus or minus 6 percent, with the highest scoring 99 percent.

Exxon's leadership cast doubt on the credibility of climate science

ExxonMobil, the world's largest oil and gas company, has been accused of spreading misinformation and casting doubt on the credibility of climate science, despite being aware of climate change as early as 1977. This knowledge did not prevent the company from spending decades refusing to publicly acknowledge climate change and even promoting climate misinformation.

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Exxon employed top scientists to investigate the issue and launched its own research program. Exxon scientists accurately predicted how much global warming would occur from burning fossil fuels. They also correctly dismissed the possibility of a coming ice age and accurately predicted that human-caused global warming would first be detectable around the year 2000.

However, instead of presenting this information to the public, Exxon sold off its renewable energy companies and doubled down on fossil fuels. Along with other big oil companies, it launched an extensive campaign of climate denial, undermining the work and warnings of its own scientists. Exxon became a leader in campaigns of confusion and helped create the Global Climate Coalition to question the scientific basis for concern about climate change. It also worked to prevent the US from signing the international Kyoto Protocol to control greenhouse gases.

Exxon's tactics were compared to those of the tobacco industry, which spread lies about the health risks of smoking. Both industries were conscious that their products wouldn't remain profitable once the world understood the risks and even used the same consultants to develop strategies on how to communicate with the public.

Exxon's actions have had severe consequences, delaying federal and international action on climate change and causing the loss of crucial time in the fight to address this global issue. Experts agree that the damage caused by Exxon's deception is huge, and there are ongoing efforts to hold the company accountable for its role in climate disinformation.

Exxon's denialism influenced policy and politicians

ExxonMobil has been a leader in climate change denial, opposing regulations to curtail global warming. The company has funded organizations that are critical of policies aimed at reducing global warming, such as the Kyoto Protocol, and has sought to undermine public opinion about the scientific consensus on the issue. This has included funding groups such as the Competitive Enterprise Institute, the George C. Marshall Institute, the Heartland Institute, the American Legislative Exchange Council, and the International Policy Network. Between 1998 and 2004, ExxonMobil granted $16 million to advocacy organizations that disputed the impact of global warming.

ExxonMobil has also used advertising to spread doubt about climate change. From 1989 until April 2010, the company purchased regular advertorials in prominent newspapers such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, and The Wall Street Journal, which claimed that the science of climate change was unsettled. This was despite ExxonMobil's own scientific research, which had accurately projected and modelled global warming due to fossil fuel burning.

ExxonMobil's denialism has influenced policy and politicians in several ways. Firstly, the company has been a significant influence in preventing the ratification of international agreements on climate change, such as the Kyoto Protocol, by the United States. Secondly, ExxonMobil has contributed financially to political organizations and candidates, with a focus on supporting those who are critical of climate change policies. In 2023, the company contributed $300,000 to five national political organizations of state officials and over $258,000 to state-level candidates and committees. ExxonMobil has also been an active lobbyist, successfully pushing for the replacement of a climate scientist with a more industry-friendly figure as the chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

ExxonMobil's denialism has had real-world consequences, delaying action on climate change and contributing to rising global temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events. The company's actions have also had financial implications, with the New York Attorney General suing ExxonMobil in 2018 for defrauding shareholders by downplaying the risks of climate change to its businesses.

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