Sylvie Willis
Fossil fuel use continues to rise, threatening hopes of a terminal decline in annual emissions. In 2023, global fossil fuel consumption rose by 1.5%, with coal, oil, and natural gas comprising 81.5% of the world's primary energy, up 2% from 2022. This increase in fossil fuel consumption has led to a record high of over 40 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. While renewable energy sources like wind and solar power have seen significant growth, they have been unable to keep up with the world's growing energy demand, resulting in a continued reliance on fossil fuels. However, there are signs of a transition, with fossil fuel consumption falling in some regions, including Europe and the United States, while countries like China are aggressively pushing renewable energy alternatives.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Fossil fuel consumption in 2023 | 505 exajoules |
| Fossil fuels as a percentage of global primary energy in 2023 | 81.5% |
| Fossil fuels as a percentage of global primary energy in 2024 | 80% |
| Fossil fuels as a percentage of global primary energy in 2023 (coal, oil, and natural gas) | 82% |
| Fossil fuel consumption increase in 2023 | 1.5% |
| Fossil fuel emissions in 2023 | 40 gigatonnes of CO2 |
| Fossil fuel emissions increase in 2023 | 2% |
| Largest increase in emissions in 2023 | India and China |
| Europe's fossil fuel consumption in its primary energy mix in 2023 | <70% |
| US fossil fuel consumption in its primary energy mix in 2023 | Third-largest consumer of coal |
| India's fossil fuel consumption increase in 2023 | 8% |
| China's fossil fuel consumption decrease in 2024 | 2% |
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What You'll Learn
Fossil fuel consumption is rising in developing countries
In India, for instance, fossil fuel consumption rose by 8% in 2023, coinciding with an equivalent surge in overall energy demand. This resulted in India's coal consumption surpassing that of Europe and North America combined for the first time. Similarly, China, the world's largest energy consumer, sourced nearly 60% of its electricity from coal, with fossil fuels contributing to almost half of its total energy mix.
While advanced economies are witnessing a decline in fossil fuel consumption, developing countries are increasing their reliance on coal, gas, and oil. This trend is attributed to the pursuit of economic development and improvements in the quality of life within these nations. Despite the global push for cleaner energy sources, emerging markets and developing economies continue to depend heavily on fossil fuels, particularly coal, as the backbone of their power systems.
The growing consumption of fossil fuels in developing countries has significant implications for global emissions and climate change efforts. Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels rose by 1.1% in 2023 compared to 2022, reaching approximately 36.8 billion metric tons. This increase impedes progress toward limiting global warming and mitigating the impact of rising temperatures.
To summarize, while renewable energy sources are gaining traction, fossil fuel consumption is rising in developing countries due to their economic aspirations and energy demands. This trend has led to record-high global fossil fuel consumption and emissions levels, posing challenges in the fight against climate change. Addressing this complex issue requires a multifaceted approach that balances the development needs of these nations with the urgent necessity to reduce carbon emissions.
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Oil and gas are still growing quickly
Oil demand rose by 2% in 2024, reaching 100 million barrels a day for the first time. In the Permian Basin, oil production is growing at an annual average of 485 kilobarrels per day, highlighting its importance in both domestic and international energy markets. Additionally, the basin contributes to 46% of US crude oil production and 20% of US gross natural gas production.
The price of oil is expected to decline in the coming months, falling from $68 per barrel in August 2025 to around $50/b in early 2026. This is due to large oil inventory builds as OPEC+ members increase production. However, low oil prices are also expected to lead to a reduction in supply by OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers, moderating inventory builds later.
While coal consumption is falling in many parts of the world, gas is becoming an increasingly popular substitute due to its lower CO2 emissions per unit of energy. In 2026, drilling activity in the United States is expected to be more focused on natural gas-intensive producing regions due to rising natural gas prices and falling oil prices. It is projected that data centers will drive over 3 Bcf/d of new natural gas demand by the end of the decade.
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Global energy demand is rising
In 2024, renewable energy sources and nuclear power together contributed 40% of total electricity generation, with renewables covering the largest share of the growth. Despite this, the world's consumption of fossil fuels continues to increase. In 2023, fossil fuels made up 81.5% of the world's primary energy, and this number only marginally decreased in 2024. The consumption of coal, a major fossil fuel, increased by just over 1% in 2024, reaching an all-time high. This growth in coal demand was driven by markets in developing countries, with China consuming nearly 40% more coal than the rest of the world combined.
While advanced economies are showing signs of peak demand for fossil fuels, developing countries are increasing their reliance on coal, gas, and oil as overall energy demand rises. For example, in India, fossil fuel consumption climbed by 8% in 2023, matching the increase in overall energy demand and making up 89% of all energy use. This shift towards fossil fuels in developing countries is driven by economic development and improvements in the quality of life.
The rise in global energy demand has important implications for climate change. While the deployment of renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles has prevented a significant amount of CO2 emissions, the continued increase in fossil fuel consumption contributes to global warming. Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels rose again in 2023, reaching record levels. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from 278 parts per million in 1750 to 420 parts per million in 2023, leading to soaring global temperatures.
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Clean energy is not meeting demand growth
Fossil fuel use reached a global record in 2024, despite the growth of clean energy. The world's consumption of fossil fuels rose by 1.5% to 505 exajoules, according to an annual review by the Energy Institute. This was driven by a 1.6% increase in coal consumption, a 2% rise in oil demand, and a steady appetite for gas.
While wind and solar power climbed by 13% in 2023 to a record of 4,748 terawatt hours, it was not enough to meet the world's growing consumption of primary energy, which rose by 2% to 620 exajoules. This led to more fossil fuel use.
In advanced economies, there are signs of fossil fuel demand peaking. However, in developing countries, economic development and improvements in the quality of life continue to drive fossil fuel growth. For instance, in India, fossil fuel consumption climbed by 8% last year, matching the increase in overall energy demand. This meant that India's fossil fuel consumption made up 89% of its energy use, surpassing that of Europe and North America combined.
The challenge of meeting demand growth in a decarbonized way is enormous, especially in the United States, where electricity demand is set to soar. While there is a push to add renewable energy plants, industry analysts say regulations need to be streamlined to facilitate the faster implementation of clean-energy projects. The US is expected to burn more natural gas in the coming years to meet electricity demand, potentially resulting in locked-in emissions.
China and India are transitioning towards clean electricity to meet their demand growth, with solar power as the engine of their energy transition. China's clean generation growth met 81% of its demand increase in 2024, and the country is set to account for almost 60% of all renewable capacity installed worldwide by 2030. India is growing at the fastest rate among major economies, with solar PV manufacturing capacity forecast to triple by 2030.
Despite the massive global growth of renewables, the share of low-carbon energy sources in global energy is projected to remain below 6% in 2030, as these fuels are currently more expensive than their fossil fuel counterparts.
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China's clean energy efforts
Fossil fuel use reached a global record in 2024, despite a simultaneous record rise in the use of renewable energy in 2023. The world's consumption of fossil fuels rose by 1.5% to 505 exajoules, driving emissions to over 40 gigatonnes of CO2. This is due to an overall increase in the world's energy demand.
China, the world's biggest renewable energy market and equipment manufacturer, has been making efforts to reduce its fossil fuel use. China's economy is increasingly reliant on the clean energy sector, with investment and production in clean energy contributing nearly $2 trillion to China's economy in 2024—around one-tenth of the country's economy. China has achieved impressive growth in its installed renewable capacity over the last two decades, dominating the production of solar and wind technologies. In 2020, China's wind power utilisation rate was 97%, and solar power was at 98%—the best globally.
China has pushed for dominance in renewable energy for economic reasons and to protect its national security by limiting its reliance on oil imports. China's vast investment in solar, wind, and batteries is on track to end an era of global growth in the use of coal, oil, and gas. China has also made a pledge to triple renewable energy by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
However, China is still building dozens of new coal-burning power plants, although these may only run at full capacity during peak energy demand. China's clean energy development requires a strong push and clear signals from central authorities, with all provinces required to take responsibility for the development and consumption of renewables.
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Frequently asked questions
Yes, fossil fuel use reached a global record in 2024, comprising 81.5% of the world's primary energy, despite clean energy growth.
India and China are the countries with the largest increase in fossil fuel consumption. In 2023, India's fossil fuel consumption climbed by 8%, while China still burns more coal than the rest of the world combined.
The burning of fossil fuels produces carbon dioxide (CO2) and is the largest driver of global climate change. The continued rise in emissions is impeding progress to limit global warming.
Low-carbon sources of energy, such as nuclear and renewables, are becoming more readily available. The Group of Seven (G7) has also agreed to exit coal by the 2030s, marking a significant step toward transitioning away from fossil fuels.
