Regan Brown
The future of diesel fuel has been a topic of debate in recent years, with increasing electrification and automation, as well as concerns over pollution and rising prices. While some regions, like California, have proposed bans on diesel engines due to their environmental impact, others argue that diesel trucks will hold their value and even become popular vehicles for restoration. The long shelf life and variety of sources for diesel may contribute to its longevity, outlasting gasoline. However, with diesel prices surging and contributing to inflation, there are concerns about the impact on industries that rely heavily on diesel, such as farming, manufacturing, and freight transportation. Automakers have also begun moving away from diesel fuel for passenger cars and light trucks.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Diesel fuel future | Despite combustion bans and dwindling fuel, diesel trucks will hold their value. |
| Diesel trucks in demand | Diesel is expected to power over 90% of transportation by 2040. |
| Diesel prices | Prices have surged to record levels, adding to inflationary concerns across the economy. |
| Diesel supply | Diesel fuel is in short supply due to sanctions on Russian oil exports and rebounding demand after the pandemic. |
| Diesel bans | California became the first state to set a timeframe for ending vehicle models powered by diesel. |
| Diesel engine maintenance | Diesel engines have higher maintenance costs compared to gasoline engines. |
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What You'll Learn
Diesel prices are surging, impacting inflation
Diesel fuel is in short supply and prices are surging, impacting inflation. The war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and rebounding demand following the pandemic have all contributed to the low supply of diesel. As a result, prices have surged to record levels, adding to inflationary concerns across the US and the global economy.
Diesel is a vital fuel for the US economy, powering farm and construction equipment, as well as trucks, trains, and boats that move goods across the country. The rising cost of diesel fuel increases the cost of consumer goods, as higher fuel costs are passed on to consumers. This includes the cost of shipping parts to factories that build gas-powered cars and electric vehicles.
The impact of diesel prices on inflation is particularly significant due to its widespread use. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, noted that the spread between diesel and motor fuel prices is the widest it has ever been. He calculated that about 17% of the acceleration of goods price inflation is due to higher diesel costs.
The low supply of diesel fuel is a result of a loss of refining capacity worldwide. Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020 led to a sharp drop in oil and fuel demand, causing imbalances as refineries first shut down and then ramped up production in response to growing demand. Some refineries have not come back online, and a few in the US are transitioning to become biofuel facilities.
The White House has considered releasing diesel from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve to ease the supply crunch and price spike. However, this reserve is relatively small and may only provide temporary relief. While there are signs that the diesel supply crunch is easing, the underlying issues remain.
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Automakers are moving away from diesel
Despite the long shelf life and variety of sources for diesel, automakers have steadily moved away from diesel fuel for passenger cars and light trucks. In 2021, Ford dropped the diesel option from America's best-selling vehicle, the Ford F-150 pickup. Automakers and regulators are debating how many more model years of diesel trucks consumers will be able to buy. California became the first state to set a timeframe for ending vehicle models powered by hydrogen or diesel. However, no regulators have made plans to ban old vehicles, including old diesel trucks.
The future of diesel-powered vehicles is uncertain. While diesel is expected to power over 90% of transportation by 2040, diesel fuel is currently in short supply, and prices are surging to record levels, adding to inflationary concerns across the global economy. The problem is especially acute on the East Coast, where stockpiles are at their lowest level since 1996. Diesel prices are increasing the cost of nearly every consumer good, as diesel is used to power trains, trucks, tankers, and farming, manufacturing, and mining equipment.
The surge in diesel prices is due in part to the loss of Russian refined products, which has hit Latin American and European diesel supplies hard. These regions are much more dependent on diesel fuel, with a higher percentage of passenger cars using it. In addition, refining capacity in the US has decreased in recent years due to refinery closures and reconfigurations to produce biofuel.
However, some argue that diesel trucks will hold their value better than any other vehicle on the road and will be one of the most popular vehicles to restore in the future. Diesel engines are powerful and can be driven for more than 30 years with good care. In addition, diesel has a lower refining requirement than gasoline, and once produced, it remains stable for several years. As gasoline production slows and gas stations disappear, diesel may become the longest-lived internal combustion fuel.
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Bans on diesel vehicles
While diesel fuel is not going away anytime soon, there is a growing movement to ban diesel vehicles, particularly in urban areas. Several countries and cities around the world have proposed or implemented bans on the sale and use of diesel-powered vehicles to reduce air pollution and combat climate change.
In 2020, California proposed a diesel engine ban due to the high levels of pollution caused by diesel-powered buses and trucks. While the ban has not been enacted, it reflects a growing trend to discourage the use of diesel vehicles. Similarly, in the UK, campaigners have pushed for a phase-out of diesel vehicles in London by 2025, with the city's mayor proposing an expansion of the Ultra-Low Emission Zone.
On a global scale, four major cities, Paris, Mexico City, Madrid, and Athens, have committed to banning all diesel-powered cars and trucks by 2025 to improve air quality. Paris has already taken steps in this direction by banning vehicles registered before 1997 from entering the city and periodically closing the Champs-Élysées to traffic.
At the EU level, there have been discussions and proposals regarding banning the sale of new diesel cars. In 2018, Denmark proposed an EU-wide prohibition, which was not in line with EU regulations. However, in 2019, Denmark suggested a phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles by 2030, gaining support from ten other EU member states. In 2022, the European Parliament voted in favor of a proposal for a 100% reduction in emissions for new car and van sales by 2035, which was approved by the Council in March 2023.
While these bans primarily target the sale of new diesel vehicles, they will likely have a significant impact on the diesel fuel market. As more countries and cities adopt similar measures, the demand for diesel fuel will decrease, potentially leading to lower production and refining rates. However, it is important to note that classic cars, including old diesel vehicles, are generally exempt from these bans, and owners will still be able to drive and fuel their cars.
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Diesel's long shelf life
Diesel fuel has a long shelf life compared to gasoline and other internal combustion fuels. It is less refined than gasoline, making it easier to produce and giving it a longer lifespan. Diesel can remain stable and usable for several years, whereas gasoline only lasts a few months after production.
The longevity of diesel fuel is due in part to its chemical composition and the presence of additives or stabilizers. Biocides and stabilizers, for example, can help eliminate microbial growth and oxidation, increasing the fuel's longevity. Additionally, diesel fuel is often treated with chemical stabilizers to prevent oxidation and microbial growth, further extending its shelf life.
Proper storage conditions are also crucial for maximizing the shelf life of diesel fuel. It should be stored in a clean, sealed, and dry container or tank, away from sunlight, heat, and sources of ignition. Underground storage tanks are ideal as they maintain cooler temperatures and protect the fuel from the elements. Regular maintenance, such as fuel polishing and tank cleaning, can also prolong the lifespan of diesel fuel by removing contaminants and maintaining fuel quality.
The long shelf life of diesel fuel has significant implications for its use in various industries. Diesel powers trains, trucks, tankers, and generators, and is relied upon by farming, manufacturing, and mining sectors. Despite the increasing electrification of vehicles, diesel trucks are expected to hold their value and remain popular for future restorations due to their longevity and the dwindling availability of gasoline.
While diesel fuel has a long shelf life, it is not indefinite. Even with proper storage and additives, diesel fuel can degrade over time, typically within six to twelve months. Contamination, exposure to oxygen, moisture, or heat can accelerate degradation, leading to reduced fuel quality and performance. Therefore, it is essential to periodically test and maintain diesel fuel to ensure its usability over time.
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Diesel's future in the US
Despite the emergence of electric vehicles and the push for clean energy, diesel fuel and diesel engines are not going away anytime soon in the US. Diesel fuel is flexible and can be used with a wide range of engines and equipment, and there are currently millions of diesel vehicles on US roads.
In 2016, diesel cars were expected to face a tough future in the US, particularly in the wake of the Volkswagen emissions scandal. However, in the years since, diesel has maintained its popularity, especially among buyers of heavy-duty pickup trucks who recognise the advantages of diesel's torque-to-economy ratio. In 2022, diesel fuel and engines are in high demand, with prices surging to record levels, adding to inflationary concerns across the economy. This is partly due to the loss of Russian refined products, which has hit Latin American and European diesel supplies hard, as well as the decrease in refining capacity in the US.
While automakers have moved away from diesel fuel for passenger cars and light trucks, and diesel engines face tighter regulations, diesel remains critical to the trucking industry. Diesel is purpose-built for moving heavy loads over long distances, making it ideal for heavy-duty vehicles and equipment that require high levels of power and endurance. DTNA, for example, remains committed to investing in cleaner equipment and alternative powertrains to meet the future of trucking, while still focusing on diesel fuel and internal combustion engines.
Looking ahead, diesel's future in the US is about balance and diversification. While diesel engine development is expected to slow as zero-emission vehicles become more prominent, diesel will continue to power trucking in the near future.
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Frequently asked questions
No, diesel fuel is not going away. In fact, it may be the longest-lived internal combustion fuel due to its long shelf life and variety of sources. However, there is a move towards electrification and automation, which may reduce the demand for diesel fuel in the future.
Diesel fuel is currently in short supply due to rebounding demand following the pandemic and restrictions on Russian oil exports, which have impacted Latin America and Europe. This has resulted in surging prices and record highs.
While there is a move towards electrification and some automakers have moved away from diesel fuel for passenger cars and light trucks, diesel engines are still popular due to their power and efficiency. It is expected that diesel will power over 90% of transportation by 2040. However, some states, like California, have proposed bans on diesel engines due to their environmental impact.
Diesel fuel is used in trains, trucks, and tankers, which transport consumer goods and their parts. As a result, the rising cost of diesel fuel increases the price of consumer goods across the economy.
