Mercedes Mullins
Jet fuel, or aviation turbine fuel (ATF), is a type of fuel designed for aircraft powered by gas-turbine engines. In 2019, the aviation sector consumed almost 8% of oil products globally, or approximately 7.5 million barrels per day. The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted jet fuel consumption, with demand expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2026. This text will explore the topic of jet fuel consumption, supply, and pricing, addressing the question of how much jet fuel is left in the world.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Jet fuel consumption in 2019 | 7.5 million barrels per day |
| Jet fuel consumption in 2020 | Halved due to the COVID-19 pandemic |
| Jet fuel consumption in 2023 | 1.65 million barrels per day |
| Jet fuel consumption by 2026 | Demand will return to 2019 levels |
| Jet fuel types | Jet A, Jet A-1, Jet B, TS-1 |
| Jet fuel price in 2025 | $92.92/bbl |
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What You'll Learn
Jet fuel consumption fell during the COVID-19 pandemic
Jet fuel consumption in the United States fell to a record low in 29 years of data-keeping in April 2020, as air travel demand plummeted amid efforts to curb the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Domestic jet fuel demand dropped to 463,000 barrels per day (b/d) during the week ending April 10, marking the lowest level ever recorded by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Jet fuel consumption was nearly 40% lower compared to the previous week and almost 55% below the four-week average. The EIA reported that jet fuel consumption fell below 1 million b/d only twice before this record low: in May 1992 and April 2020.
The decrease in jet fuel consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic was not limited to the United States. Australia, the world's eighth-largest jet fuel consumer, faced challenges in securing supplies of agricultural feedstocks necessary for its sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) sector. The country primarily imports jet fuel from Singapore and South Korea, with domestic refineries contributing a smaller portion.
The aviation industry experienced a significant impact on jet fuel consumption due to the pandemic. Commercial jet fuel consumption was the most affected, witnessing a 42% drop from 2019 to 2020. In 2023, commercial carriers consumed 8% less fuel than in 2019. However, military and government users were relatively less impacted, with only a 7% decline in jet fuel use from 2019 to 2020. Their consumption rebounded to pre-pandemic levels by 2021.
The slow recovery of jet fuel consumption after the initial pandemic shock was influenced by various factors. Labor supply constraints in the aviation sector and high fuel prices hindered a faster rebound. Additionally, the increasing fuel efficiency of newer airplanes limited jet fuel consumption. Commercial airlines have been actively improving the fuel economy of their fleets to reduce operational costs.
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Jet A and Jet A-1 are the most commonly used jet fuels
Jet fuel, or aviation turbine fuel (ATF), is a type of aviation fuel designed for aircraft powered by gas-turbine engines. It is a straw-coloured or colourless mixture of hydrocarbons. The most commonly used jet fuels for commercial aviation are Jet A and Jet A-1, which are produced to a standardized international specification. Jet A has been used in the United States since the 1950s and is usually not available outside the US and a few Canadian airports. Jet A-1, on the other hand, is the standard specification fuel used in most of the rest of the world, except Russia and the CIS members, where TS-1 is the most common.
Jet A and Jet A-1 have a flash point higher than 38 °C (100 °F), with an auto-ignition temperature of 210 °C (410 °F). The main differences between the two fuels are the freezing point and the addition of an additive. Jet A-1 has a lower freezing point than Jet A, allowing aircraft to fly at higher altitudes and in colder environments without the risk of fuel solidification. The other difference is the mandatory addition of an antistatic additive to Jet A-1 fuel, which helps to reduce the risk of static electricity buildup during fueling and flight operations, thus enhancing safety.
Jet A and Jet A-1 are kerosene-based jet fuels derived from crude oil. Kerosene-based jet fuels are the most prevalent in aviation today due to their high energy density, low freezing points, and excellent stability, making them ideal for powering aircraft engines across a wide range of operating conditions. Jet B is another jet fuel that is used for its enhanced cold-weather performance, but it is less common than Jet A and Jet A-1 due to its higher volatility and lower flash point, which can pose safety challenges.
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Jet fuel is a mixture of hydrocarbons
Jet fuel is a kerosene-based hydrocarbon fuel that may contain up to 260+ aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbon compounds. These include toxicants such as benzene, n-hexane, toluene, xylenes, trimethylpentane, methoxyethanol, and naphthalenes. The exact composition of jet fuel varies depending on the petroleum source, so it is defined by performance specifications rather than a specific chemical compound. The range of molecular mass between hydrocarbons is determined by the product's requirements, such as freezing and smoke points.
The development of jet fuel has progressed since World War II, when kerosene-based fuels were first established by British and American standards. Over time, specifications have been adjusted to balance performance and fuel availability, with freezing and flash points being key considerations. Higher flash point products, for instance, are necessary for use on aircraft carriers but are more expensive to produce.
The performance specifications of jet fuel are critical to its functionality. For instance, jet fuel has a low viscosity at low temperatures, a limited range of density and calorific value, and remains chemically stable when heated to high temperatures. These properties make it suitable for use in jet engines, where it burns cleanly and has optimal combustion characteristics.
There is a push towards sustainable aviation fuel, and researchers are exploring ways to create jet fuel from alternative sources such as seawater. This technology involves separating oxygen and hydrogen gas from seawater, followed by an oligomerization step to create long-chain hydrocarbons. While these developments are ongoing, jet fuel remains a critical transportation fuel, powering aircraft and supporting global travel and connectivity.
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Jet fuel consumption by military and government users was less affected by the pandemic
While the pandemic significantly impacted jet fuel consumption, military and government users were less affected. Commercial aviation, which typically accounts for around 85% of jet fuel consumption in the US, experienced a 42% drop in jet fuel consumption from 2019 to 2020 due to pandemic-era travel restrictions. In contrast, military and government users, who account for around 7% of jet fuel consumption, saw only a 7% decline in jet fuel use during the same period.
The lower impact on military and government jet fuel consumption can be attributed to the essential nature of their operations. Military missions and government activities often involve critical tasks that cannot be postponed or cancelled due to external factors. While commercial airlines experienced a significant reduction in passenger travel and air freight during the pandemic, military and government aviation continued their operations with minimal disruptions.
Additionally, the recovery of jet fuel consumption to pre-pandemic levels by 2021 was more rapid for military and government users. This can be partly explained by the nature of their operations, which are less influenced by economic fluctuations and travel trends. Military and government aviation often involve strategic, diplomatic, or defence-related activities that are independent of commercial market forces.
Moreover, the pandemic highlighted the reliance on jet fuel for critical government and military operations. As commercial airlines grounded flights and reduced operations, the need for jet fuel in these sectors decreased significantly. However, military and government users maintained a consistent demand for jet fuel, ensuring a stable supply for their essential operations.
It is worth noting that, while jet fuel consumption by military and government users was less affected by the pandemic, they still experienced a slight decline. This can be attributed to some travel restrictions and a general decrease in global mobility during the peak of the pandemic. However, the impact was significantly lower compared to the commercial aviation sector, underscoring the essential nature of military and government aviation operations.
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Jet fuel prices
Jet fuel, or aviation turbine fuel (ATF), is a type of aviation fuel designed for aircraft powered by gas-turbine engines. The most commonly used jet fuels are Jet A and Jet A-1, which are produced according to international standards. The price of jet fuel varies depending on various factors, including regional demand and the previous day's spot market price assessment.
The Jet Fuel Price Monitor provides weekly updates on the latest price data from leading energy information providers like Platts. For instance, the global average jet fuel price for a specific week was $92.92 per barrel, a 0.3% decrease from the previous week. Platts assesses jet fuel spot prices in relevant regional centers, considering market holidays and demand during a particular period.
The price of jet fuel is influenced by its specifications and performance characteristics. For example, jet fuel with a very low freezing point may be more expensive due to reduced availability. Additionally, jet fuel with a higher flash point, which is required for aircraft carriers, tends to be more costly to produce. The ASTM International sets standards for civilian fuel types in the United States, while the U.S. Department of Defense establishes standards for military use.
Another factor impacting jet fuel prices is the lubricity additive requirement. Jet fuel has poor lubricating ability compared to diesel, leading to increased wear on fuel injection equipment. An additive may be necessary to enhance lubricity, resulting in higher costs. Jet fuel also contains up to 1,000 ppm of sulfur, contributing to its lubricity and current non-requirement for a lubricity additive.
It is worth noting that jet fuel prices can be compared over time using indices. For instance, an index value of 200 reflects a doubling of the price since the year 2000. These indices provide a percentage figure representing the overall rise or fall in jet fuel prices compared to a base period.
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Frequently asked questions
I cannot find an exact answer to this question, but sources suggest that the demand for jet fuel has decreased since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The most common types of jet fuel are Jet A and Jet A-1, which are used in the US and Canada, and the majority of the rest of the world, respectively. Jet B is another type of jet fuel that is used for its enhanced cold-weather performance.
Jet fuel is a refined petroleum product that is made from a mixture of various hydrocarbons.
