Mercedes Mullins
The aviation industry's consumption of fossil fuels is a pressing issue, with commercial airlines reaching a record-high fuel consumption of 95 billion gallons in 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a temporary dip in 2020, but consumption is rising again, with a forecast of 99 billion gallons in 2024. The United States leads the world in per capita jet fuel consumption, and aviation fuel is primarily derived from petroleum or blends of petroleum and synthetic fuels, with jet fuel being the dominant demand. Aviation's contribution to global warming is significant, with CO2 emissions accounting for approximately 70% of aircraft exhaust and non-CO2 emissions having a strong warming effect due to nitrogen oxides, vapour trails, and cloud formation. While innovations like Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) and zero-emissions aircraft are being explored, the aviation industry faces challenges in meeting decarbonization targets.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Global fuel consumption by commercial airlines in 2019 | 95 billion gallons |
| Global fuel consumption by commercial airlines in 2020 | 52 billion gallons |
| Global fuel consumption forecast for 2023 | 92 billion gallons |
| Global fuel consumption forecast for 2024 | 99 billion gallons |
| CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in 2019 | 1,000 Mt CO2 |
| CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in 2020 | 600 Mt CO2 |
| CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in 2022 | 950 Mt CO2 |
| CO2 emissions from fossil fuels expected in 2025 | >1,000 Mt CO2 |
| Percentage of CO2 in aircraft emissions | 70% |
| Ratio of CO2 produced per kg of jet fuel consumed | 3.16 kg of CO2 |
| Percentage of a given quantity of CO2 removed from the atmosphere over 30 years | 30% |
| Percentage of a given quantity of CO2 that disappears within a few hundred years | 50% |
| Percentage of a given quantity of CO2 that stays in the atmosphere for thousands of years | 20% |
| Percentage of aircraft exhaust that is water vapour | 30% |
| U.S. per capita fuel consumption for domestic and international flights compared to the world average | 6 times |
| U.S. per capita fuel consumption for domestic and international flights compared to India | 37.5 times |
| Percentage of global CO2 emissions from aviation in 2019 | 2.5% |
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What You'll Learn
- Jet fuel usage was 95 billion gallons in 2019
- CO2 emissions from fossil fuels were over 1000 Mt in 2019
- Aviation fuel is derived from petroleum or blends of synthetic fuels
- Sustainable aviation fuels yield lower emissions but face economic barriers
- The US will remain the world leader in per capita jet fuel consumption
Jet fuel usage was 95 billion gallons in 2019
Jet fuel is a mix of extremely refined kerosene, with a burning temperature of 49°C (120°F) or above. It is a high-quality fuel, and if it does not pass the purity and quality tests for jet aircraft, it is sold to ground-based users such as railroads. Jet fuel is sold in high volume to large aircraft operators, such as airlines and militaries.
Jet fuel consumption produces CO2 at a defined ratio of 3.16 kg of CO2 per 1 kg of fuel consumed. CO2 accounts for around 70% of aircraft emissions and has a direct warming effect when released into the atmosphere. Water vapour makes up about 30% of jet fuel exhaust and has a minimal warming impact due to its short lifespan in the atmosphere.
The United States is the world leader in per capita jet fuel consumption, with usage six times the world average and 37.5 times that of India. The increase in passenger traffic in the US will generate an enormous increase in jet fuel consumption, with annual domestic enplanements projected to reach 1.26 billion by 2041, 55% higher than in 2019.
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CO2 emissions from fossil fuels were over 1000 Mt in 2019
Commercial airlines' fuel consumption reached an all-time high of 95 billion gallons in 2019. Jet fuel consumption produces CO2 at a defined ratio of 3.16 kg of CO2 per 1 kg of fuel consumed. As a result, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels exceeded 1000 Mt in 2019.
CO2 is the most significant component of aircraft emissions, accounting for approximately 70% of the exhaust. The extended lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere makes it a potent greenhouse gas. After being emitted, 30% of a given quantity of CO2 is naturally removed from the atmosphere over 30 years. An additional 50% disappears within a few hundred years, while the remaining 20% persists in the atmosphere for thousands of years.
The transportation sector is the largest source of direct greenhouse gas emissions. Over 94% of the fuel used in transportation is petroleum-based, including gasoline and diesel, which contribute to direct emissions. Aircraft emissions are included in this category, and the use of jet fuel by commercial airlines is a significant contributor to CO2 emissions.
The connection between passenger traffic growth and carbon emissions is evident. According to the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), even a few percentage points difference in growth predictions can result in significantly different projections of total emissions. Their analysis highlights that the difference between a low-growth and a high-growth scenario could result in 700 million tons of additional CO2 emissions by 2050.
To address the impact of aviation on CO2 emissions, alternatives to conventional fossil-based aviation fuels are being explored. Sustainable aviation fuel and blends of fossil and sustainably sourced alternative fuels have the advantage of requiring minimal modifications to aircraft while reducing emissions of particles and greenhouse gases. However, these fuels face political, technological, and economic barriers, including higher costs compared to conventionally produced aviation fuels.
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Aviation fuel is derived from petroleum or blends of synthetic fuels
Aviation fuel, also known as jet fuel, is a highly refined form of gasoline designed for aircraft use. These fuels are derived from petroleum or blends of synthetic fuels, with stringent requirements to meet aviation performance and handling needs.
Jet-A, a widely used aviation fuel, is a mix of highly refined kerosene, with a burn temperature of 49°C (120°F) and above. Kerosene-based fuels have a higher flashpoint than gasoline, requiring significantly higher temperatures to ignite. Jet-A is used in modern commercial airliners, while smaller aircraft, light helicopters, and vintage piston-engined aircraft use aviation gasoline (avgas) or aviation spirit. Avgas has distinct formulations from conventional gasoline and comes in various grades with high octane ratings.
Aviation fuels consist of blends of over two thousand chemicals, mainly hydrocarbons, and additives like antioxidants, biocides, and corrosion inhibitors. These fuels have specific properties, such as lubricity, density, and elastomer seal swelling, which are crucial for aircraft fuel systems. The net energy content of aviation fuels varies depending on their composition, with values like BP Avgas 80 having a density of 690 kg/m3 at 15°C, while Kerosene type BP Jet A-1 has a density of 804 kg/m3 at the same temperature.
Sustainable aviation fuel, a blend of fossil and sustainably sourced alternative fuels, offers lower emissions of particles and greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, their adoption is limited due to political, technological, and economic barriers, including higher costs compared to conventional fuels. Compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquified natural gas (LNG) are potential future fuel feedstocks for aircraft, with studies exploring their feasibility.
The development of aviation fuels has progressed alongside aircraft and engine technology, with fuel specifications driven by performance requirements. Aviation fuels have a chemical structure similar to crude oil, with variations in composition based on different producers' technologies. The early experiences with piston engine fuels have contributed to the current jet fuel specifications used in the industry and military contexts.
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Sustainable aviation fuels yield lower emissions but face economic barriers
The aviation industry is facing increasing demands for carbon reduction, which has led to a growing need for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). SAF is an alternative to conventional fossil-based aviation fuels, which power modern commercial airliners and are typically derived from petroleum or blends of petroleum and synthetic fuels. SAF is similar to traditional kerosene-based aviation fuel but has significantly lower carbon emissions. This reduction is achieved through various routes, including carbon capture technologies and the use of biogenic-carbon feedstock, such as biomass.
SAF has the advantage of requiring few to no modifications to aircraft, as long as the fuel characteristics meet specifications for lubricity and density. In addition, SAF yields lower emissions of particles and greenhouse gases (GHGs), which is particularly beneficial in reducing local emissions of harmful compounds around airports during take-off and landing.
However, SAF adoption currently faces several economic barriers. Firstly, SAF is currently more expensive than conventionally produced aviation fuels. Additionally, there is a lack of awareness among countries and relevant regulations to support the widespread adoption of SAF. The absence of a global consensus on aviation fuel taxation further complicates the transition to SAF, as some countries oppose the implementation of a worldwide aviation fuel tax.
Despite these challenges, organizations like the U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) are actively working to overcome barriers and promote the development and deployment of low-carbon SAF. With the right support and initiatives, SAF has the potential to play a significant role in reducing the carbon footprint of the aviation industry.
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The US will remain the world leader in per capita jet fuel consumption
The US per capita fuel consumption for domestic and international flights is six times the world average and 37.5 times that of India. Jet fuel consumption produces CO2 at a defined ratio of 3.16 kg of CO2 per 1 kg of fuel consumed. CO2 accounts for approximately 70% of aircraft emissions and has a direct warming effect on the atmosphere.
The increase in jet fuel consumption is attributed to the growth in passenger traffic. By 2041, annual domestic enplanements in the US are projected to reach 1.26 billion, a 55% increase compared to 2019. Total annual international passengers to and from the US are also expected to climb from 67 million in 2020 to 446 million by 2041.
While jet fuel demand was 8 million barrels per day in 2019, it is projected to increase to 18 million barrels per day by 2050. This rise in demand is influenced by factors such as population growth, GDP per capita, travel miles per capita, and improvements in fuel economy.
The US's large and mature aviation market means that even modest growth in passenger traffic will result in a significant increase in jet fuel consumption. Therefore, the US will likely maintain its position as the country with the highest per capita jet fuel consumption in the world.
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Frequently asked questions
Airplanes consumed 95 billion gallons of fossil fuels in 2019.
In 2020, due to the pandemic, airplanes consumed 52 billion gallons of fossil fuels.
In 2021, airplanes consumed 39.5% less fossil fuel than in 2019. The exact number is not available.
It is predicted that fossil fuel consumption by airplanes will surpass 2019 levels in 2025.
In 2019, aviation accounted for 2.5% of global CO2 emissions from fossil sources.
