Regan Brown
Fossil fuels are non-renewable resources that took millions of years to form. They are constantly being depleted, and with global energy consumption increasing, the use of fossil fuels is rising. While the exact date that fossil fuels will run out is unknown, estimates suggest that oil deposits will be gone by 2052. At current consumption rates, there is a 50-year supply of natural gas, a 61-year supply of oil, and a 208-year supply of coal left. As fossil fuels disappear, nuclear power is becoming a more prominent alternative, but renewable energy sources like wind and solar are also being explored.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Total proven reserves of fossil fuels | 49,023 exajoules |
| Years of fossil fuel left (based on proven reserves) | 50 years |
| Years of oil left (at current consumption levels) | 47 years |
| Years of natural gas left (US only) | 52.8 years |
| Years of gas left (worldwide) | 90 to 120 years |
| Years of coal left | 150 years |
| Percentage of energy from fossil fuels | 80% |
| Percentage of energy from renewables | 6% |
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What You'll Learn
How much oil is left?
Fossil fuel consumption has increased significantly over the past 50 years, with consumption doubling since 1980 and increasing eightfold since 1950. Oil consumption has grown quickly, and in 1948, petroleum was the greatest single energy source in the United States, with the country consuming over 60% of the petroleum brought to the surface of the Earth in 1938.
Warnings of oil shortages have been prevalent since at least 1952, and the United States has been drilling, refining, and consuming oil at a prodigious rate. However, due to the concerted efforts of the Interstate Oil Compact Commission, state regulatory agencies, the United States Bureau of Mines, educational and research institutions, and the industry, the United States' proved reserves of oil have increased from an estimated 4.5 billion barrels in 1926 to over 24 billion barrels in 1952.
While the world is developing alternative fuels, oil and gas are still growing quickly. As of January 1, 2018, there were an estimated 7,124 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of total world proved reserves of gross natural gas. Considering the current rate of natural gas production and known natural gas reserves, there are about 52.8 years' worth of natural gas reserves left.
Renewable energy sources contributed 25% of the world's energy demand in 2017, with China and the EU contributing 50% of the increase in renewable-based electricity generation, followed by the US, India, and Japan. Nuclear power is also becoming more prominent as fossil fuels begin to disappear, with 11% of the world's electricity produced from nuclear energy in 2018. Uranium may last over 150 years.
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How much gas is left?
Gas is one of the three fossil fuels, along with coal and oil, that have been used as energy sources since the Industrial Revolution. While coal consumption is decreasing in many parts of the world, oil and gas consumption are still growing quickly. In 2018, gas accounted for 23% of total energy demand, and it is the second-highest source of electricity generation, at 23% or 6,091 TWh.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), there were about 2,459 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of technically recoverable dry natural gas resources in the United States as of January 1, 2017. Considering the current rate of natural gas production and known natural gas reserves, the United States has about 52.8 years' worth of natural gas reserves left.
On a global scale, there were an estimated 7,124 Tcf of total world proved reserves of gross natural gas as of January 1, 2018. The world consumed 132,290,211 million cubic feet (MMcf) of natural gas in 2017, which equates to 17,303 cubic feet per capita per year or 47 cubic feet per capita per day. As of 2017, there were 6.923 Tcf of proven gas reserves globally, equivalent to 143.4 times the annual consumption level. This means there are approximately 143 years of gas left (at current consumption levels and excluding unproven reserves).
While fossil fuel consumption continues to increase, the world is also developing alternative energy sources. Renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and hydro, are being explored, although hydro is limited due to global warming and water scarcity. Nuclear power is also becoming more prominent as a carbon-free energy source, currently contributing over 11% of the world's electricity.
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How much coal is left?
Coal is the oldest fuel we have, formed over hundreds of millions of years from vegetation. While the use of coal is declining in many parts of the world, it is still actively mined in the US, China, and India.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), as of 31 December 2021, the total world had proven recoverable coal reserves of about 1,161 billion short tons (or about 1.16 trillion short tons). At that time, the EIA estimated that global recoverable coal reserves would last about 133 years at current consumption levels (excluding unproven reserves). However, the actual number of years that those reserves will last depends on changes in production and reserves estimates.
In the US, the amount of coal is difficult to estimate because it is buried underground. The most recent comprehensive national assessment of US coal resources was conducted in 1975, indicating that as of 1 January 1974, coal resources in the US totaled 4 trillion short tons. While the US Geological Survey (USGS) has conducted more recent regional assessments, a new national-level assessment has not been undertaken. The EIA provides three measures of US coal reserves based on various degrees of geologic certainty and the economic feasibility of mining. Based on US coal production in 2022, the EIA estimates that recoverable coal reserves would last about 422 years, while recoverable reserves at producing mines would last about 20 years.
While coal consumption has declined in some countries, it has increased in others, such as India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, where additional energy demand associated with economic growth is met partly by coal. China, which consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined, continues to define global trends. In 2021, the Chinese government ordered coal mines to operate at full capacity, approved new mines, and eliminated restrictions on coal imports. As a result, global coal use is expected to rise to 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024, a record high.
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How long will fossil fuels last?
Fossil fuels have been powering our world for around two centuries now, and they continue to be the primary source of energy for most nations. In 2020, fossil fuels provided over 80% of the world's energy, with oil, gas, and coal being the most widely used fossil fuels. However, the question of "how long will fossil fuels last?" is a complex one, and the answer depends on various factors, including consumption rates, new technologies, and the development of alternative energy sources.
Currently, the world is facing a dilemma. On one hand, there is a growing recognition of the environmental impact of burning fossil fuels, with coal being the most polluting among them, and a need to transition to renewable energy sources. On the other hand, there is a stark reality that our civilization heavily relies on fossil fuels, and a major disruption in their supply could lead to catastrophic consequences.
Estimates suggest that at our current rates of production and consumption, we have approximately 50 years of fossil fuel reserves left. This includes coal, which is estimated to last around 150 years, oil with proven reserves lasting about 47 years, and natural gas with varying estimates of between 53 and 120 years. However, it is important to note that these estimates are based on current consumption rates and do not account for potential increases in demand or the discovery of new reserves.
The good news is that many countries are actively developing renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydro. Additionally, nuclear power is gaining prominence as a carbon-free alternative that can provide continuous electricity. While these alternatives are crucial to reducing our dependence on fossil fuels, the reality is that most nations will continue to develop all available energy sources to ensure their energy security.
In conclusion, while it is challenging to provide an exact timeframe for how long fossil fuels will last, it is clear that they are a finite resource with an expiry date. The transition to renewable and alternative energy sources is already underway, but it will take time and a concerted global effort to shift away from our centuries-long reliance on fossil fuels.
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What's next after fossil fuels?
Fossil fuels are non-renewable resources that took millions of years to form. They have been the primary source of energy for around two centuries, and in that time, we have consumed a massive amount. The demand for fossil fuels is still rising, with global energy demand increasing by 2.1% in 2017, 72% of which was from fossil fuels. This has resulted in a rise in CO2 emissions, reaching a historic high of 33.1 gigatons. At this rate, it is estimated that our fossil fuel reserves will be empty by 2060. However, the exact date is unknown as we continue to discover new reserves, although at a low rate.
As fossil fuels begin to disappear, the world is actively developing and turning to renewable sources of energy, such as solar, wind, and hydro power. The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide, and it is inevitable. The latest edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) describes an energy system in 2030 in which clean technologies play a significantly greater role. This includes almost ten times as many electric cars on the road worldwide, solar PV generating more electricity than the current US power system, and renewables' share of the global electricity mix nearing 50%.
Nuclear power is also becoming more prominent as fossil fuels deplete. Nuclear energy is carbon-free and can provide electricity continuously 24 hours a day. Uranium, which may last over 150 years, is currently used in nuclear reactors. However, the future of nuclear energy may lie in thorium-based reactors, as thorium is more abundant in nature than uranium.
While the world is moving towards renewable and nuclear energy, there are some challenges to overcome. For example, nuclear power plants are safe, but the storage of nuclear waste is a problem. Additionally, hydropower is limited due to global warming and the overall lack of water. Despite these challenges, the development and adoption of renewable and nuclear energy sources are crucial in reducing our consumption of fossil fuels and mitigating their harmful environmental impacts.
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Frequently asked questions
As of 2020, there are 10,596 exajoules of oil left in the world, which is approximately a 61-year supply.
As of January 1, 2018, there were 7,124 trillion cubic feet of natural gas globally, which is approximately a 50-year supply.
As of 2020, there is a 208-year supply of coal left.
Renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydro power are being developed, but they currently only provide 5% of our energy needs. Nuclear power is also an alternative, currently providing 4% of our energy. Uranium, in particular, may last over 150 years, but thorium-based nuclear reactors are also being explored.
It is difficult to determine exactly when fossil fuels will run out, as we continue to discover new reserves. However, based on current consumption rates, it is estimated that oil deposits will be gone by 2052, and that we will run out of fossil fuels within this century.
