Rajan Wilcox
Fossil fuels have been the dominant source of energy worldwide for almost two centuries, but the question of how much longer we can rely on them has become increasingly urgent. Fossil fuels are non-renewable resources with finite reserves, and global consumption has increased significantly over the past 50 years, with oil and gas growing particularly quickly. While there are proven reserves of coal, oil, and natural gas that could last decades, these estimates are based on current consumption rates and do not account for potential increases in demand or the discovery of new reserves. With the negative impacts of fossil fuels on the environment and alternative energy sources becoming more viable, the transition to renewable and low-carbon energy sources is imperative.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Percentage of energy consumption worldwide in 2020 | 80% |
| Percentage of energy consumption worldwide in 2017 | 72% |
| Years of natural gas reserves left as of 2019 (US) | 52.8 |
| Years of natural gas reserves left worldwide as of 2020 | 50 |
| Years of coal reserves left worldwide as of 2020 | 208 |
| Years of oil reserves left worldwide as of 2020 | 61 |
| Years of oil reserves left worldwide as of 2016 | 47 |
| Years of gas reserves left as per BP's Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 | 90-120 |
| Worldwide coal reserves as per World Coal Association | 1.1 trillion tonnes |
| Years of coal reserves left as per World Coal Association | 150 |
| Years of coal reserves left as per MAHB | 150 |
| Years of uranium reserves left | 150+ |
| Expiry year of fossil fuels | 2060 |
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What You'll Learn
Fossil fuels are a depleting resource
The consumption of fossil fuels has increased significantly over time, especially in the last half-century. Since 1950, global fossil fuel consumption has increased eightfold, and it has doubled since 1980. This trend is driven by the ever-growing global energy demand, which rose by 2.1% in 2017 and by 2.3% in 2018. Fossil fuels remain the primary source of energy to meet this demand, accounting for 72% of it in 2017.
While it is challenging to pinpoint exactly when fossil fuels will run out, estimates provide a worrying outlook. According to the World Coal Association, at current rates of production and consumption, coal reserves are expected to last around 150 years. Similarly, the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 estimated that natural gas reserves would last between 90 and 120 years. For oil, estimates vary, with some sources stating around 50 years, while others predict depletion by 2052 or even as early as 2060.
The expiry of fossil fuels is not just a matter of time but also of consequence. Fossil fuels power the global economy, and a disruption in their supply would have catastrophic impacts. However, the continued reliance on fossil fuels comes at a cost. They are the largest driver of global climate change, contributing significantly to air pollution and millions of premature deaths annually. As low-carbon sources of energy, such as nuclear and renewables, become more accessible, the urgent need to transition away from fossil fuels becomes increasingly apparent.
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Oil, gas, and coal reserves
Oil, natural gas, and coal are non-renewable resources with finite reserves. Fossil fuels, including oil, gas, and coal, currently provide over 80% of the world's energy. However, as these reserves are depleted, the world will need to transition to alternative energy sources.
Oil Reserves
Oil has been a significant source of energy since the industrial revolution, and its production has peaked in recent years. In 2020, 174 exajoules of oil were burned, leaving approximately 10,596 exajoules in reserves, which is estimated to be a 61-year supply at the current rate of consumption. However, it's important to note that these estimates are based on proven reserves, and there may be additional unproven reserves that could extend the supply.
Natural Gas Reserves
Natural gas is another crucial fossil fuel for energy production. As of January 1, 2018, the world had an estimated 7,124 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of total proven natural gas reserves. In the United States alone, there were approximately 2,459 Tcf of technically recoverable resources as of January 1, 2017. At the current rate of production and consumption, the US has about 52.8 years' worth of natural gas reserves remaining.
Coal Reserves
Coal is the oldest fuel we have, and it has taken hundreds of millions of years to form from vegetation. It is still actively mined in countries like the US, China, and India. As of 2020, the world had an estimated 208-year supply of coal reserves at the current rate of consumption. However, coal-fired power generation is the largest emitter of energy-related CO2 emissions, contributing 30% to the total emissions.
While the world continues to rely heavily on fossil fuels, the development of alternative energy sources is also underway. Renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and hydro power are being explored, although they currently face limitations due to global warming and water scarcity. Nuclear power is also emerging as a prominent alternative, providing carbon-free electricity 24 hours a day.
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Global energy consumption
The demand for energy worldwide is increasing, with a 2.1% rise in 2017, and a 2.3% rise in 2018. This demand is largely being met by fossil fuels, with 72% of the increase in energy demand in 2017 being met by fossil fuels, 25% by renewables, and the remainder by nuclear power. Electricity is becoming an increasingly important "fuel" of the future, with global electricity demand growing by 4% in 2018 to over 23,000 TWh, and renewable power production is also increasing, with a 6.3% growth in 2017. However, renewable energy sources currently only contribute a quarter of the world's energy demand and nuclear power provides 11% of the world's electricity, so fossil fuels remain crucial to meeting global energy demands.
According to estimates, at current rates of consumption, there is a 208-year supply of worldwide coal reserves, a 50-61-year supply of natural gas, and known oil deposits will run out by 2052 or 2060. However, these estimates do not account for potential changes in consumption rates or the discovery of new reserves, and it is possible that the practice of extracting fossil fuels will become economically unviable before they are completely depleted. Nonetheless, the expiry of fossil fuels is not sustainable as the world currently depends on them, and a disruption in the supply of fossil fuels could have catastrophic consequences.
To address the impending depletion of fossil fuels and mitigate their negative environmental impacts, the world needs to rapidly transition to low-carbon sources of energy such as nuclear power and renewables. However, despite the calls for the abolition of fossil fuels, most nations will continue to develop every source of energy available to them as quickly as possible to meet the growing demand for energy.
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The growth of renewable energy
Fossil fuels, including oil, natural gas, and coal, are non-renewable resources with finite reserves. In 2020, fossil fuels provided over 80% of the world's energy, with coal, oil, and gas accounting for 72% of global energy demand. However, the growth of renewable energy sources is gaining momentum and challenging the dominance of fossil fuels.
In recent years, the world has witnessed a significant expansion of renewable energy sources, with renewables contributing about a quarter of the world's energy demand in 2017. Global renewable power production increased by 6.3% that year, with China and the EU contributing 50% of the increase in renewable-based electricity generation. The growth of renewable electricity, particularly from solar and wind sources, has been a key driver in the transition towards cleaner energy. Between 2000 and 2023, renewables expanded from 19% to more than 30% of global electricity, with solar and wind increasing from 0.2% to a record 13.4% in the same period. This growth has led to a crucial turning point, with fossil generation expected to decline globally.
The International Energy Agency's (IEA) Renewables 2024 report highlights an expected massive global growth of renewables by 2030. The world is projected to add over 5,500 gigawatts of new renewable energy capacity between 2024 and 2030, almost triple the increase between 2017 and 2023. China is set to lead this expansion, accounting for almost 60% of all renewable capacity installed worldwide by 2030. India is also making remarkable progress, growing at the fastest rate among major economies. Solar PV is expected to be the primary technology, contributing 80% of the growth in global renewable capacity.
The aviation, marine, and road transport sectors are also witnessing a shift towards renewable energy. Biofuels, renewable electricity, aviation and maritime biofuels, hydrogen, and e-fuels are gaining traction in these sectors. While biofuels currently dominate new renewable transport demand in Brazil, India, and much of the world, electric vehicle use and vehicle efficiency are reducing transport fuel demand in the United States and Europe. Nonetheless, new policies in the aviation and marine sectors are boosting biofuel demand in these regions.
Heat pumps and solar thermal and geothermal heating systems are also gaining popularity, particularly in Europe, where heat pumps are gaining ground over fossil fuel boilers. However, these systems require significant investment, and sales are sensitive to borrowing costs and consumer sentiment.
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The future without fossil fuels
Fossil fuels have powered human civilization for centuries, but their reserves are finite and the world is rapidly depleting them. In 2020, fossil fuels provided over 80% of the world's energy, with oil, natural gas, and coal being the most consumed. According to estimates, as of 2020, there is a 61-year supply of oil, a 208-year supply of coal, and a 50-53-year supply of natural gas left. However, these estimates do not account for potential new discoveries of “unproven” reserves, which could significantly extend the lifespan of fossil fuel reserves.
Despite the push for renewable energy sources, the reality is that a future without fossil fuels is challenging and will require significant lifestyle changes. Electric alternatives require vast amounts of minerals and resources to produce and power, and renewable energy sources currently cannot match the energy density of fossil fuels. Transitioning to a fully electric world is not feasible in the short term, and reducing overall energy demand and consumption may be a more realistic approach.
To achieve a future without fossil fuels, a comprehensive strategy is necessary. This includes accelerating the development and adoption of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydro power. Nuclear power, with its continuous electricity generation and carbon-free nature, is also an important alternative. However, the transition to these new energy sources will require time and significant investments.
In addition to renewable and nuclear energy, a future without fossil fuels will require a restructuring of society and its expectations. This includes reducing energy demand and raw material consumption, as well as adapting to new lifestyles and technologies. Activists, campaigners, and academics are already working towards protecting our planet and pushing for change, but a collective effort is needed to address the enormous threats posed by our fossil fuel-addicted economy.
While a future without fossil fuels is challenging, it is not impossible. By combining the development of new energy sources with a reduction in consumption and demand, we can work towards a regenerative and sustainable future. This future may be characterized by different energy sources, altered social contracts, and a renewed focus on protecting our planet and combating climate change.
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Frequently asked questions
It is difficult to say exactly how much fossil fuel is left in the world as it depends on factors such as new technology and the development of alternative fuels. However, according to a source from 2019, if we continue at our current rate, it is estimated that all our fossil fuels will be depleted by 2060.
At our current rates of production and consumption, it is estimated that there is enough coal to last us 150 years. However, this may be reduced to 90-120 years depending on the annual rate of consumption.
As of January 1, 2018, there were an estimated 7,124 trillion cubic feet of total world proved reserves of gross natural gas. At the current rate of production and known natural gas reserves, there are about 52.8 years' worth of natural gas reserves left globally.
According to a source from 2020, at current rates of consumption, there is a 61-year supply of oil left. However, another source from 2016 states that there are about 47 years of oil left, excluding unproven reserves.
Fossil fuels currently provide over 80% of all energy consumed worldwide. A disruption in the supply of fossil fuels could lead to a humanitarian apocalypse, with crops withering and supply chains crashing. However, the world is developing renewable sources of energy such as solar, wind, and hydro, and nuclear power is becoming more prominent.
