Katerina Swanson
The burning of fossil fuels has been a key driver of industrialization and rising prosperity, but it has also had detrimental effects on health and the climate. Fossil fuel consumption has increased significantly over the past few centuries, and while global consumption is often a reflection of population size, some countries consume far more than others. As of 2021, the US had emitted nearly double the amount of carbon dioxide as China since 1850, with a total of 509 gigatons of CO2 emitted compared to China's 258 gigatons. However, in 2024, the US power system became more fossil-fuel dependent than China's, with fossil fuels generating 62.4% of total electricity production in the US compared to 60.5% in China. This shift highlights China's more aggressive transition to clean power, but also underscores the need for the US to reduce its fossil fuel generation and increase clean power output to maintain credibility in energy sector decarbonization efforts.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| US fossil fuel reliance | 62.4% of total electricity production |
| China fossil fuel reliance | 60.5% of total electricity production |
| US clean power generation | Increased by 16% since 2019 |
| China clean power generation | Increased by 67% since 2019 |
| US coal-fired generation | Dropped by 34% since 2019 |
| China coal-fired generation | Dropped below 60% of total electricity production in 2024 |
| US total electricity generation | Increased by 5.5% from 2019 to 2024 |
| China total electricity generation | Increased by 37% from 2019 to 2024 |
| US carbon dioxide emissions | 509 gigatons |
| China carbon dioxide emissions | 258 gigatons |
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What You'll Learn
- US fossil fuel reliance undermines its energy transition leadership claims
- China's clean power output is more aggressive than the US
- China's fossil fuel use is rising due to manufacturing-led economic growth
- The US has emitted nearly double the CO2 of China since 1850
- Fossil fuels are the largest driver of global climate change
US fossil fuel reliance undermines its energy transition leadership claims
The United States' heavy reliance on fossil fuels undermines its claims of leadership in the global energy transition. Despite efforts to transition to clean energy, the US has recently become more dependent on fossil fuels than China, the world's largest polluter. This reliance on fossil fuels has serious consequences for the climate and calls into question the US's commitment to decarbonisation.
The US has historically been a major emitter of carbon dioxide, with fossil fuels dominating its energy mix for over a century. As of 2021, the US had emitted nearly double the amount of carbon dioxide as China since 1850, with a total of 509 gigatons of CO2 emitted, according to Carbon Brief. This is a direct contributor to climate change, as carbon dioxide traps heat and raises surface temperatures, leading to climbing sea levels and other environmental impacts.
While the US has made some progress in transitioning to clean energy sources, with electricity output from clean energy sources rising by around 16% since 2019, it has not been enough to keep up with the increasing demand for power. Total US electricity generation has grown by around 5.5% from 2019 to 2024, driven by increased energy consumption from electric vehicles, data centres, and artificial intelligence applications. As a result, power firms have had to offset the drop in coal output with higher gas-fired production, leading to an overall increase in fossil fuel usage.
In contrast, China has been more aggressive in ramping up its clean power output, with clean-powered electricity generation rising by 67% from 2019 to 2024. Despite China's manufacturing-led economy facing a steeper climb in total power demand, its power firms have been able to boost overall power supplies while reducing coal's share of the generation mix. As a result, China is closer to hitting a peak in fossil fuel use than the US, threatening the US's credibility as a leader in energy transition efforts.
To maintain its leadership position and credibility, the US must quickly cut fossil fuel generation and rapidly increase clean power output. Without these changes, the US risks falling behind other major economies in decarbonisation efforts and losing its ability to influence global energy transition initiatives.
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China's clean power output is more aggressive than the US
China and the United States are the world's first and second-largest emitters of greenhouse gases, respectively. While China's power system relied on fossil fuels for 60.5% of electricity output in 2024, the United States relied on fossil fuels for 62.4% of electricity output during the same period. This makes the US more fossil-fuel dependent than China. China has made more aggressive boosts to clean power output than the US, which has left the former closer to hitting a peak in fossil fuel use.
China's clean-powered electricity supplies jumped by 68% between 2019 and 2024, lifting total electricity output by 36%. In contrast, US clean power production climbed by 17% over the same period, while overall electricity supplies climbed by only 5%. China's electricity production is around 35% more carbon-intensive than the US system. However, China's carbon intensity of 534 grams of CO2/kWh in 2024 was lower than the WAPA system's average of 675 grams of CO2/kWh, which operates across parts of South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Colorado.
China has the most aggressive clean energy development roadmap of any major economy. Its clean energy capacity already exceeds total fossil capacity by about 20% and continues to grow. In contrast, US clean generation capacity is around 35% less than fossil capacity. China's manufacturing-led economy has seen a far steeper climb in total power demand in recent years, with electricity consumption rising by nearly 37% from 2019 to 2024. To keep up with this demand, China has increased both fossil fuel and clean energy generation more than any other major economy. Clean-powered electricity generation in China has grown by 67% since 2019, while fossil fuel-fired electricity output has increased by 23% during the same period.
China has made aggressive investments in electric vehicles (EVs), which can reduce the country's dependence on oil imports and air pollution in cities. Nearly 60% of global EV sales in 2023 were in China, and EVs made up 38% of new car sales that year. China has also heavily subsidized green industries, with estimates placing these subsidies at nearly 2% of Chinese GDP in 2019. However, these investments have been criticized for flooding global markets with cheap exports from subsidized firms and threatening American and European firms.
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China's fossil fuel use is rising due to manufacturing-led economic growth
China's economy has experienced rapid growth over the decades, leading to a significant expansion of its energy needs. This growth has been particularly prominent in the manufacturing industry, which has seen a surge in demand for coal. From 1990 to 2019, China's coal consumption nearly quadrupled, and since 2011, the country has consumed more coal than the rest of the world combined.
To meet the increasing energy demand, China has turned to both fossil fuels and clean energy sources. Fossil fuel-fired electricity output jumped by around 23% from 2019 to 2024, with over 95% of this power coming from coal plants. China's utilities have been forced to increase fossil fuel generation to keep up with the rising demand, especially in the manufacturing sector.
However, China has also made significant investments in clean energy transition, becoming the world's largest investor in this area. In 2021, China invested $266 billion in energy transition measures, accounting for more than one-third of the global total. The country has committed to making non-fossil fuel energy 20% of its energy supply by 2030 and to peaking CO2 emissions by the same year.
China's national economic blueprint, the 14th Five-Year Plan, outlines a commitment to nuclear energy, with plans to increase installed capacity to 70,000 MW by 2025. Additionally, China is the world's largest importer of natural gas and is investing heavily in oil-refining capacity, poised to surpass the United States as the top petroleum product producer.
While China's fossil fuel use is rising due to manufacturing-led economic growth, the country is also taking steps towards a cleaner energy future, recognizing the importance of sustainable alternatives to secure its future energy needs.
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The US has emitted nearly double the CO2 of China since 1850
As of 2024, the US power system has become more fossil-fuel-dependent than China's. US utilities have relied on fossil fuels to generate an average of 62.4% of total electricity production over the past four months, compared to 60.5% in China. However, when considering cumulative emissions since 1850, the US has emitted nearly double the carbon dioxide (CO2) of China.
The US has emitted 20% of the world's CO2 since 1850, amounting to 509 gigatons, while China has emitted 11%, or 258 gigatons. These historical totals are significant because climate change increases in direct proportion to cumulative global emissions. The burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and gas, releases greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, contributing to global climate change.
While the US has made efforts to prioritize clean power generation over the past five years, with electricity output from clean energy sources rising by around 16% since 2019, the total power demand has also been steadily rising. This has limited the ability of power firms to significantly reduce fossil fuel generation. From January to September 2019, coal-fired generation contributed 750 TWh, while in the same months of 2024, it dropped to 497 TWh, a 34% decrease. However, to offset this drop, gas-fired generation increased by 20% during the same period.
In contrast, China has been more aggressive in ramping up its clean power output. From 2019 to 2024, China's fossil fuel-fired electricity output increased by 23% to 4,618 TWh, with over 95% coming from coal plants. However, clean-powered electricity generation from renewables, nuclear plants, and hydro dams grew even faster, rising by 67% to 2,834 TWh. As a result, China's power firms have been able to boost overall power supplies while reducing coal's share of the generation mix.
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Fossil fuels are the largest driver of global climate change
The transportation sector is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, with over 94% of transportation fuel being petroleum-based and vehicles, ships, and planes burning fossil fuels for energy. The manufacturing and industrial sectors are also large contributors, as fossil fuels are burned to produce energy for manufacturing processes and to power industrial buildings and equipment. Additionally, the commercial and residential sectors contribute through the burning of fossil fuels for heat and the use of gases for refrigeration and cooling.
To combat climate change, global power providers are taking a two-pronged approach: cutting fossil fuel use and increasing clean power output. While the US has prioritized clean power generation over the past five years, with a 16% increase in electricity output from clean energy sources since 2019, it has not sufficiently reduced its generation of power from fossil fuels. This is partly due to the steadily rising total power demand, which has been driven by electric vehicles, data centers, and artificial intelligence applications.
China, on the other hand, has been more aggressive in ramping up its clean power output. From 2019 to 2024, China's clean-powered electricity generation from renewables, nuclear plants, and hydro dams grew by 67%, while its fossil fuel-fired electricity output increased by 23%. As a result, China's share of electricity production from coal has dropped below 60% for the first time, and it is closer to hitting a peak in fossil fuel use than the US.
To summarize, fossil fuels are the dominant cause of global warming and climate change, and the US has been more dependent on them for electricity generation than China in recent months. Both countries are taking steps to transition to cleaner energy sources, but the US risks falling behind in energy sector decarbonization efforts if it does not quickly cut its fossil fuel generation.
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Frequently asked questions
Yes, as of 2024, the US power system has become more fossil-fuel-dependent than China's. US utilities have relied on fossil fuels to generate an average of 62.4% of total electricity production, compared to 60.5% in China.
Fossil fuels are coal, oil, and natural gas. They have been a fundamental driver of technological, social, and economic progress. However, they have negative impacts on health and the climate when burned, producing carbon dioxide (CO2) and contributing to global climate change.
As of 2021, the US had emitted 20% of the world's CO2, which is nearly double China's emissions of 11%. The US has emitted 509 gigatons of carbon dioxide, while China has emitted 258 gigatons.
The US has prioritized clean power generation over the past five years, with electricity output from clean energy sources rising by around 16% since 2019. However, the total power demand is still rising, limiting the scope for power firms to cut fossil fuel generation.
China's fossil fuel-fired electricity output has jumped by around 23% from 2019 to 2024, but its clean-powered electricity generation has grown even more, rising by 67%. China's power firms are adding more renewables, reducing coal's share of the generation mix.
