Sylvie Willis
Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas that is responsible for almost a third of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution. Fossil fuels, including coal, oil, and natural gas, are a significant source of methane emissions. Natural gas, for example, often contains methane, and coal deposits can yield coalbed methane. The extraction and use of fossil fuels can result in methane leaks, contributing to the overall methane emissions from this source. The energy sector, which includes fossil fuel operations, is the second-largest source of methane emissions from human activity.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Fossil fuels contain methane | Yes |
| Fossil methane emissions in the atmosphere | 1.6 million tonnes per year, with a maximum of 5.4 million tonnes per year |
| Fossil methane emissions from human activity | 60% |
| Fossil methane emissions from natural sources | 40% |
| Fossil methane emissions from the energy sector | 120 million tonnes in 2023 |
| Fossil methane emissions from the top 10 emitting countries | 80 million tonnes in 2023 |
| Fossil methane emissions reduction target by 2030 | 50% |
| Fossil methane emissions reduction target by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5 °C | 75% |
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What You'll Learn
Fossil methane emissions are likely underestimated
Fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and natural gas, are known to contain methane. A potent greenhouse gas, methane has a global warming potential 28 to 36 times that of carbon dioxide over 100 years. While methane emissions from fossil fuels have long been a concern, recent studies suggest that these emissions may have been "severely" underestimated.
The underestimation of methane emissions from fossil fuels has significant implications for understanding climate change. According to Hmiel et al. (2020), previous estimates of natural fossil methane emissions were around 40-60 million tonnes of methane per year. However, their research suggests a significantly lower figure, ranging from 1.6 million to a maximum of 5.4 million tonnes per year. This finding indicates that natural emissions may be "10 times smaller" than previously believed.
The discrepancy in methane emissions estimates stems from the complex nature of methane sources and the challenges in accurately measuring them. Previous "bottom-up" inventories estimated methane emissions by multiplying the number of sources, such as livestock, natural gas operations, and landfills, by their likely emissions. However, these inventories have been criticised for not adequately accounting for emissions from oil-and-gas infrastructure.
In contrast, the Hmiel et al. study analysed the precise makeup of methane molecules to determine their origin. They found that methane emissions from the extraction and transport of fossil fuels, such as leaks from coal mining and flaring from oil and gas drilling, are more significant contributors to atmospheric methane than previously thought. This suggests that human-caused fossil methane emissions are likely 25-40% higher than earlier estimates, highlighting the fossil fuel industry's substantial role in driving recent climate change.
Furthermore, mapping methane emissions from fossil fuel production is crucial for monitoring greenhouse gas emissions. NASA's Carbon Monitoring System funded the creation of maps detailing the geography of methane emissions, utilising fuel exploitation emissions data from 2016. These maps provide a spatial representation of methane emissions, allowing for comparisons with satellite observations of methane concentrations. While self-reported country estimates are available, their accuracy has been questioned, emphasising the value of independent mapping efforts.
In conclusion, fossil methane emissions are likely underestimated, and the true extent of these emissions may be significantly higher than previously believed. Accurate understanding and quantification of methane emissions from fossil fuels are essential for developing effective climate change mitigation strategies. Further research and improved measurement techniques are necessary to address the underestimation of fossil methane emissions and guide global efforts to combat climate change.
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Fossil methane emissions are driven by extraction and transport
Fossil fuels are known to contain methane, and human-caused emissions of methane from the extraction and use of fossil fuels may have been ""severely underestimated", according to a study. The research indicates that ""natural"" emissions of fossil methane that escape from deep reserves make up a much smaller fraction of total methane emissions than previously thought. This suggests that the levels of fossil methane in the atmosphere are driven by methane escaping as coal, oil, and natural gas are mined, drilled, and transported.
The new study, published in Nature, focuses on emissions of fossil methane. These are most commonly associated with the extraction and transport of fossil fuels, such as leaks from coal mining and flaring from oil and gas drilling. Fossil methane emissions are driven by the release of about 97 million metric tons of methane gas each year, according to the United Nations (UN). The maps delineate where these emissions occur based on the locations of coal mines, oil and gas wells, pipelines, refineries, and fuel storage and transportation infrastructure.
The maps were recently published at NASA's Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). "It is widely known that the self-reported country estimates are not the highest quality," said Tia Scarpelli, leader of the effort and a postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Edinburgh. "Our maps provide researchers with a spatial representation of methane emissions so that they can be compared with observations of methane concentrations from satellites."
The findings indicate that "almost all fossil methane in the atmosphere today is from anthropogenic emissions originating from the extraction and use of fossil fuels", according to Hmiel. This suggests that previous "bottom-up" inventories, which estimate methane figures by multiplying the number of sources and their likely emissions, are "severely underestimating" emissions from fossil fuels. Human-caused fossil methane emissions are likely to have been underestimated by 38-58 million tonnes per year, the paper concludes, equivalent to about 25-40% of recent estimates.
The fossil fuel industry is likely responsible for a larger proportion of recent climate change than previously thought, according to scientists. This means there is a "greater opportunity" to cut these emissions, says Dr Heather Graven, a senior lecturer on the global carbon cycle at Imperial College London. "It's critical that more effort is put into methane emissions mitigation, such as fixing leaks in natural gas extraction and distribution networks. And we need to monitor these mitigation efforts using atmospheric measurements, including measurements of radiocarbon in atmospheric methane like those made in this study," Graven adds.
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Natural fossil methane emissions are very small
Fossil fuels are known to contain methane, a greenhouse gas with a significant impact on global warming. Methane is emitted during the production and transport of coal, natural gas, and oil. However, the focus of the discussion here is on natural fossil methane emissions, which are now understood to be relatively minor.
A 2020 study published in Nature reveals that natural fossil methane emissions are much lower than previously estimated. This research highlights that methane escaping during the extraction and transport of fossil fuels, such as coal mining leaks and oil and gas drilling, is a more significant contributor to total methane emissions. The study suggests that previous estimates of natural fossil methane emissions, which ranged from 40 to 60 million tonnes of methane per year, were overly high. The actual emissions are likely closer to 1.6 million tonnes per year, with a maximum of 5.4 million tonnes per year. This implies that natural emissions are approximately ""10 times smaller than previously thought," according to the lead author, Dr Benjamin Hmiel.
Hmiel's research also provides insights into the historical context of methane emissions. Before 1870, natural fossil methane seepage was minimal, accounting for no more than 1% of today's total methane sources. This period precedes the significant growth in fossil fuel usage that occurred during the Industrial Revolution. The decline in atmospheric 14C concentrations, as more 14C-free methane was released, coincides with the increased utilisation of fossil fuels.
The findings of Hmiel's study have significant implications for understanding the role of the fossil fuel industry in climate change. The research indicates that methane emissions from the extraction and use of fossil fuels may have been severely underestimated. This suggests that the industry's contribution to recent climate change is even larger than previously believed. However, it also highlights the potential for substantial emission reductions through addressing leaks in natural gas extraction and distribution networks.
To address the issue of methane emissions, regulatory efforts have been implemented, such as the EU's Methane Regulation, which aims to reduce methane emissions in the energy sector and reinforce the fight against climate change. Additionally, international cooperation, such as the Joint Statement on 'Accelerating Methane Mitigation from the LNG Value Chain,' has emerged to tackle methane emissions on a global scale. These initiatives strive for improved data transparency, monitoring, and reporting standards, as well as mitigation actions in exporting countries.
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Fossil methane emissions are declining
Fossil fuels are a major source of methane emissions, which is a powerful greenhouse gas contributing to global warming. Methane emissions from fossil fuels are mainly associated with the extraction and transport of fossil fuels, such as leaks from coal mining and flaring from oil and gas drilling. However, there is good news on the horizon: methane emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decline in the near future.
This decline in emissions can be attributed to several factors, including international climate agreements, technological advancements, and growing awareness of the impact of methane on global warming. For instance, the Paris Agreement, a global pact to combat climate change, has set ambitious targets to limit warming to well below 2°C, with a more aspirational goal of 1.5°C. To achieve these targets, a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, including methane, is necessary.
Recent analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights the potential for a downward trend in methane emissions from fossil fuels. The IEA's Global Methane Tracker report reveals that fossil fuel production and utilisation resulted in approximately 120 million tonnes of methane emissions in 2023, a minor increase from the previous year. However, the report also identifies substantial policies, regulations, and pledges made at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai that could lead to a decrease in emissions soon.
Additionally, the IEA emphasizes the feasibility of achieving substantial reductions in methane emissions from the fossil fuel industry. They estimate that existing technologies and well-known measures can lead to a 70% reduction in operational releases and a 75% reduction in the oil and gas sector specifically. This reduction can be facilitated by implementing emissions reduction measures and technologies, such as leak detection and repair programs, halting non-essential flaring and venting, and improving fossil gas extraction and transport infrastructure to prevent unintended leaks.
Moreover, financial institutions are also playing a crucial role in driving down methane emissions. There is increasing pressure on fossil fuel companies to adopt ambitious methane emissions reduction targets and plans. This includes reducing production, committing to avoiding new extraction projects, and mitigating existing emissions through various techniques. These efforts are expected to result in a noticeable decline in methane emissions from the fossil fuel sector.
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Fossil methane emissions are highest in the US, Russia, and China
Fossil fuels are a major source of methane emissions, with the extraction, storage, and transportation of oil, natural gas, and coal resulting in the release of about 97 million metric tons of methane gas annually. While previous estimates put natural fossil methane emissions at 40-60 million tonnes of methane per year, a new study finds they are more likely to be around 1.6 million to 5.4 million tonnes per year. This suggests that human-caused methane emissions from fossil fuels may have been "severely underestimated".
Indeed, it is widely known that self-reported country estimates of methane emissions are not the most accurate. To address this, scientists have created detailed maps of methane emissions from fossil fuel production, providing researchers with a spatial representation of emissions that can be compared with satellite observations of methane concentrations. These maps indicate that the United States, Russia, and China are the top three emitters of methane from fossil fuels, specifically in the natural gas, oil, and coal sectors, respectively.
The United States is the largest emitter of methane from oil and gas operations, with Russia closely following. In terms of coal emissions, China is the highest emitter. These emissions arise from various stages of fossil fuel production, including extraction, drilling, and transportation, as methane escapes from coal mines, oil and gas wells, pipelines, refineries, and storage facilities.
To address these emissions, targeted measures are necessary even as fossil fuel use declines. Cutting fossil fuel demand alone is insufficient to achieve the deep and sustained reductions needed. Encouragingly, more governments and fossil fuel companies are committing to taking action on methane, and various pledges and policies have been established to reduce methane emissions. For example, the United States has set a goal to reduce methane emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030.
Overall, it is crucial to accurately understand the role of methane as a greenhouse gas and to take targeted actions to reduce emissions, particularly from the fossil fuel industry, to mitigate climate change.
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Frequently asked questions
Fossil fuels are a source of methane emissions, which are released during the extraction and transport of fossil fuels. Natural gas, for example, contains methane.
The amount of methane emitted from fossil fuels has been estimated to be around 120 million tonnes in 2023, with the largest emitting countries contributing to around 80 million tonnes. Previous estimates of natural fossil methane emissions were around 40-60 million tonnes of methane per year, but a new study finds they are more likely to be closer to 1.6 million tonnes per year, with a maximum of 5.4 million tonnes per year.
Methane emissions from fossil fuels are associated with the extraction and transport of fossil fuels, such as leaks from coal mining and flaring from oil and gas drilling. The energy sector, including oil, natural gas, coal, and bioenergy, is the second-largest source of methane emissions from human activity.
