Sylvie Willis
The use of fossil fuels is causing severe harm to our environment and driving climate change. Scientists, activists, and politicians are calling for a halt to greenhouse gas emissions, and many are asking if we can stop producing fossil fuels. While it is not feasible to immediately stop extracting and using fossil fuels, as the global economy, human health, and livelihoods currently depend on them, it is clear that we need to transition to low-carbon renewable energy sources. This transition is challenging due to the cost and abundance of fossil fuels, as well as the need to ensure a just transition for those working in the industry. However, the development of cleaner energy technologies and the increasing share of renewable electricity give hope for a sustainable future.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Impact of stopping fossil fuel production | Burning the fossil fuel reserves known to us today would increase global temperatures by 10°F to 15°F. |
| Current global efforts | A recent global energy review by the International Energy Agency described a significant drop in energy demand from fossil fuels due to the COVID-19 pandemic. |
| Current global energy share of fossil fuels | Fossil fuels have a 75% share of global electricity. |
| Current alternatives | Alternatives to fossil fuels with lower carbon footprints include electricity generated by nuclear power plants and "green hydrogen". |
| Challenges in stopping fossil fuel production | Fossil fuels are cheap, energy-dense, and the cost of their pollution is usually not factored in. |
| Political challenges | Minimizing the impact of climate change requires re-making a multi-trillion-dollar industry that lies at the center of the economy and people's lives. |
| Technological challenges | Technology has improved significantly in cleaner energy sources, but trends in clean technology progress are not yet strong enough. |
| Market forces | As long as markets fail to account for the environmental damage from using fossil fuels, there will always be incentives to develop new techniques to access these resources. |
| Supply and demand | The historical record indicates that the supply of fossil fuels has consistently increased over time and that their relative price advantage over low-carbon energy sources has not declined substantially over time. |
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What You'll Learn
- Fossil fuels are cheap because their pollution cost isn't factored in
- The transition to clean energy is challenging due to politics and industry interests
- Fossil fuel alternatives are improving but aren't yet cost-competitive
- Reducing emissions to net-zero is distinct from stopping greenhouse gas emissions
- Fossil fuels are hard to quit due to their integral role in the global economy
Fossil fuels are cheap because their pollution cost isn't factored in
Fossil fuels are cheap because their pollution cost is not factored in. The burning of fossil fuels accounts for 87% of the world's CO2 emissions, and the air pollution from burning fossil fuels kills 3.6 million people worldwide annually. Despite this, fossil fuels remain relatively cheap because the cost of their pollution is not usually considered.
The cost of fossil fuels depends on the price of the fuel and the power plant's operating costs. In contrast, renewable energy plants have lower operating costs and do not need to pay for fuel. As a result, renewable energy sources can save people from air pollution and reduce energy prices, leading to growing incomes and declining poverty.
While it is not feasible to immediately stop using fossil fuels, as the global economy, human health, and livelihoods heavily depend on them, it is crucial to gradually displace them with low-carbon renewable energy sources. The first priority should be switching to renewable energy, not just for electricity but also for heating, cooling, and transport fuels.
To accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, governments should encourage the reduced use of fossil fuels by supporting renewable energy systems. Additionally, market forces alone are unlikely to reduce the supply or demand for fossil fuels. Clear and decisive global action is needed to introduce adequate prices on greenhouse gas emissions and increase investment in clean energy technologies.
Furthermore, the cost of renewable energy sources has been decreasing, making them more competitive with fossil fuels. However, the levelized cost of solar power, for example, is still higher than the cost of natural gas-fired power, even when accounting for climate-related damages. Similarly, the price of oil would need to be significantly higher for electric vehicles to have a lower cost of ownership than gasoline-powered vehicles.
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The transition to clean energy is challenging due to politics and industry interests
The transition to clean energy is challenging due to the deeply entrenched political and industry interests in maintaining the status quo of fossil fuel usage. The fossil fuel industry wields significant financial and lobbying power, which it leverages to influence policymakers, shape public opinion, and obstruct climate action.
Fossil fuel companies and their associated trade groups have spent vast sums of money on lobbying and political contributions to protect their interests. For example, during the 2017-2018 midterm election cycle in the United States, the industry spent over $359 million, with nearly $500,000 spent per day. This spending has continued in subsequent years, with the fossil fuel industry spending approximately $125 million in 2022 and almost $93 million in the first part of 2023 on lobbying alone. This financial influence is not limited to the United States, with similar lobbying efforts observed in Canada, Australia, Europe, and other parts of the world.
The fossil fuel lobby has scored key political appointments and influenced high-ranking government officials, including presidents and cabinet members. They have also contributed significantly to the campaigns of specific politicians who support their agenda, such as Mitt Romney, who has received more fossil fuel money than any other U.S. senator. Oil and gas companies tend to favor Republican politicians, with the majority of their donations going to GOP politicians and lawmakers who vote against environmental protections.
In addition to financial contributions, the fossil fuel industry has engaged in sophisticated public relations campaigns to shape public opinion and undermine climate science. They have spread misinformation, promoted climate change denial, and generated astroturf groups to create the illusion of grassroots support for their agenda. For example, Exxon and other oil companies have spent over $5 billion undermining climate science and fighting clean energy policies. These efforts have successfully stalled climate action for decades, despite growing public support for renewable energy and concern about climate change.
The transition to clean energy is further complicated by the economic realities of the energy sector. Fossil fuels remain relatively cheap, and the cost of their pollution is often not factored into their market price. As a result, alternative energy sources must compete on cost, and the technology for cleaner energy sources is still developing and may not yet be cost-competitive.
Overcoming these political and industry interests will require strong global action, including putting a price on greenhouse gas emissions and increasing investment in research and development for clean energy technologies. While the transition to clean energy is challenging, it is crucial to address climate change and reduce emissions to protect our planet and future generations.
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Fossil fuel alternatives are improving but aren't yet cost-competitive
Fossil fuel alternatives are constantly improving, but they are not yet cost-competitive. The cost of clean technologies must decrease to reduce the demand for fossil fuels. For example, the levelized cost of solar power fell from nearly $450/MWh in 2009 to $150/MWh in 2014, but the cost of natural gas-fired power is still cheaper, even when accounting for the cost of climate-related damages.
Similarly, the current battery cost for electric vehicles is $325 per kWh, and the price of oil would need to exceed $350 per barrel before an electric vehicle would be cheaper than a gasoline-powered vehicle. Oil traded below $30 per barrel in 2015, so batteries need to become much cheaper for electric vehicles to reduce fossil fuel demand.
While alternative sources of energy and energy storage technologies have vastly improved, lowering costs, they are not yet cost-competitive with fossil fuels. However, the business case for renewables is now stronger than ever. Renewables are rising, and 91% of new renewable projects are now cheaper than fossil fuels. This is due to manufacturing scale-up, improved materials, and optimized production techniques.
Although solar and wind power can significantly contribute to carbon reduction, they cannot replace 24/7 baseload power. Utilities employing solar and wind farms need to keep their fossil-fueled generators running to provide power when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing. However, battery storage systems could fill these gaps by storing and saving energy for distribution when needed.
To stop using fossil fuels, clear and decisive global action is required to introduce an adequate price on greenhouse gas emissions and increase research and development spending toward clean energy technologies.
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Reducing emissions to net-zero is distinct from stopping greenhouse gas emissions
The concept of net-zero emissions has gained prominence in recent years, with governments and businesses setting targets to achieve it. However, it is distinct from stopping greenhouse gas emissions entirely. Here's why:
Firstly, net-zero emissions refer to a balance between greenhouse gas emissions and removals over a specific period, usually a year. This balance ensures that human activities do not contribute to a net increase in global warming effects from greenhouse gases. Achieving net zero requires deep cuts in emissions, such as transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and halting deforestation. Any remaining emissions can be offset through carbon capture and storage technologies.
On the other hand, stopping greenhouse gas emissions entirely would mean completely halting the release of these gases into the atmosphere. While this may seem ideal, it is not feasible to immediately stop using fossil fuels due to our heavy reliance on them for energy, economic activities, and human needs. A sudden cessation of fossil fuel use could also disrupt industries and livelihoods, requiring a gradual transition to cleaner alternatives.
The distinction between net-zero emissions and stopping emissions lies in their impact on global temperatures. If we stopped producing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases today, it would not instantly halt temperature rise. This is because the carbon cycle continues to absorb a small portion of human-caused CO2 emissions into vegetation and oceans even after emissions cease. As a result, global temperatures would continue to rise slowly over centuries due to the delayed response of the oceans to warming.
In contrast, achieving net-zero emissions aims to stabilize temperatures by ensuring that any ongoing emissions are balanced by removals. This approach recognizes that some emissions may be challenging to eliminate, such as those from chemical processing, but focuses on reducing them to a level where they do not contribute to net global warming. Net-zero targets also provide flexibility for countries and industries to transition at different paces, with wealthier nations expected to reach net zero earlier.
Additionally, net-zero targets often focus on carbon dioxide emissions, which are longer-lived in the atmosphere, while recognizing that short-lived gases like methane do not need to be reduced to zero to halt global warming. This distinction is important because while reducing methane emissions can cause an immediate decline in radiative forcing, they contribute to higher temperatures in the short term. Therefore, a comprehensive net-zero target should include all greenhouse gases to effectively mitigate climate change.
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Fossil fuels are hard to quit due to their integral role in the global economy
The global economy, human health, and livelihoods currently depend heavily on oil, coal, and gas. Fossil fuel corporations have discovered far more oil, gas, and coal reserves than can be burned without significantly impacting global temperatures. The development of new extraction techniques, such as oil shale and methane hydrates, could further increase the supply of fossil fuels.
The transition to cleaner energy sources is challenging due to the high cost of alternative technologies. For example, the current battery cost of $325 per kWh for electric vehicles means that the price of oil would need to exceed $350 per barrel before electric vehicles would become a cheaper option than gasoline-powered vehicles. Similarly, the levelized cost of solar power has decreased but remains higher than the cost of natural gas-fired power.
To effectively address climate change, it is necessary to remake the multi-trillion-dollar fossil fuel industry that lies at the center of the global economy. This transition will require not only technological advancements but also clear and decisive global action to introduce adequate prices on greenhouse gas emissions and increase investment in clean energy technologies.
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Frequently asked questions
Fossil fuels are cheap and energy-dense, and they currently play a significant role in the global economy, human health, and livelihoods. Additionally, the transition to cleaner energy sources requires time and investment in research and development.
Stopping fossil fuel production and transitioning to renewable energy sources can help mitigate climate change, reduce local pollution, and improve public health. However, it also carries economic and political challenges, as the fossil fuel industry is a multi-trillion-dollar industry that employs many people.
There are several alternatives to fossil fuels, including renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and nuclear power. Electric vehicles and "green hydrogen" are also potential alternatives in the transportation sector.
