Sylvie Willis
Tucker Carlson claimed that the US would run out of diesel fuel in 25 days, i.e., by Thanksgiving week. However, this claim has been deemed false by fuel experts and the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The 25-day figure is a metric that calculates the days' worth of supply if US refineries stopped producing oil and imports from other countries ceased. While there are indeed supply and demand issues, and low diesel fuel stockpiles, the US will not run out of diesel fuel in 25 days.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Date of claim | November 2022 |
| Source of claim | Tucker Carlson, Fox News host |
| Claim | The US will run out of diesel fuel in 25 days |
| Status of claim | False |
| Reasoning | The 25-day figure is a representation of the current balance of supply and demand, not an indicator of fuel running out. It does not account for ongoing diesel production and imports. |
| Impact | Higher diesel fuel prices, especially in the Northeast US |
| Factors contributing to supply and demand issues | COVID-19 pandemic, shutdowns of US oil refineries, sanctions on Russian oil due to the Ukraine war, increased demand for diesel fuel, and competition with Europe for energy |
| Government response | Governors of South Dakota, Iowa, and Nebraska issued emergency waivers for truckers transporting fuel to expedite supply |
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What You'll Learn
Tucker Carlson's false claim
On October 27, 2022, Fox News host Tucker Carlson claimed that the US would run out of diesel fuel in 25 days, "by the Monday of Thanksgiving week". He cited data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to support his claim. However, this claim has been widely debunked and labelled as false by fact-checking organizations and fuel experts.
Carlson's claim was based on the EIA's weekly supply estimate of distillate fuel oil, which includes diesel. The data showed that as of October 28, the US had 25.8 days' worth of diesel fuel in storage. However, this number does not account for ongoing diesel production or imports. The EIA's data only represents the current consumption and does not factor in the oil that is imported or produced by refineries, which constantly refill the supply.
Fuel experts and the EIA clarified that the data Carlson cited does not indicate that the country will run out of diesel. They explained that the 25-day figure is a metric that calculates the days' worth of supply if US refineries stopped producing oil and imports from other countries ceased. This metric is used to assess overall supply and demand balances.
While it is true that there were supply and demand issues, with sanctions on Russian oil due to the war in Ukraine and increased demand for diesel fuel, refineries are actively producing more diesel, and imports are also contributing to the supply. Oil analyst Denton Cinquegrana noted that the diesel situation was concentrated in a specific region of the country, and diesel ships had been diverted from Europe to supply the US Northeast, the area with the lowest supply.
Despite the corrections and clarifications provided by experts and the EIA, Carlson continued to promote the idea of an imminent diesel shortage, blaming the Biden administration for the supposed crisis. His claims were shared and echoed by other right-wing media personalities and high-profile Republicans, spreading misinformation on social media platforms.
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Diesel supply and demand
In 2022, Tucker Carlson claimed that the US would run out of diesel fuel in 25 days. However, this was proven to be false. The 25-day figure is a metric that measures the days' worth of supply if US refineries stopped producing oil and the industry stopped importing it from other countries. It does not account for ongoing diesel production.
The diesel fuel supply in the US is “very tight”, which could result in higher prices at the pump and climbing energy prices. This low supply can be attributed to several factors, including seasonal maintenance, the COVID-19 pandemic, and competition with Europe for energy as Western countries reduce their consumption of Russian gas due to the war in Ukraine.
The demand for diesel fuel generally follows economic trends. The US vehicle fleet depends almost entirely on petroleum, and diesel fuel is a major transportation fuel. A Mississippi River drought is also forcing barge freight onto trucks, and a possible rail strike could further increase demand for diesel fuel.
In the Northeast, the demand for heating oil in the winter also affects diesel fuel prices, as heating oil and diesel fuel are produced simultaneously. The retail price of diesel fuel reflects local market conditions, such as the location and ownership of retail outlets. Areas farthest from the Gulf Coast, which is the source of about half of US diesel fuel production, tend to have higher diesel fuel prices.
While the US is not running out of diesel fuel in 25 days, it is possible that some short-term regional shortages of fuel could occur. However, suppliers will likely rally to fill in any gaps in the supply, and governments can also act to help expedite the transport of fuel.
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Diesel production and imports
The United States' diesel fuel consumption is mostly met by petroleum refineries in the country. In 2022, U.S. refineries produced about 1.75 billion barrels (73.46 billion gallons) of ultra-low sulfur distillate (ULSD), which is used as diesel fuel and heating oil. The total ULSD consumption in the U.S. for all uses was about 1.44 billion barrels (60.30 billion gallons).
Although ULSD production exceeded ULSD consumption, the United States imported about 0.07 billion barrels (2.80 billion gallons) of ULSD, with 72% of these imports coming from Canada. In 2022, total ULSD imports were equal to about 5% of total ULSD consumption in the United States.
The U.S. also imported petroleum products, including diesel fuel, from 86 countries in 2023, with a total of about 8.51 million barrels per day (b/d). Crude oil imports accounted for about 76% of total gross petroleum imports. The top five source countries for U.S. gross petroleum imports in 2023 were Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Brazil.
In addition to petroleum-based diesel, the U.S. also produces and imports biomass-based diesel fuels, such as biodiesel and renewable diesel. The U.S. Renewable Diesel Fuel and Other Biofuels Plant Production Capacity report includes data on renewable diesel fuel and other biofuels, excluding fuel ethanol and biodiesel.
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Impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a significant impact on diesel fuel supplies and prices worldwide. The conflict has disrupted the global energy market, with Russia being one of the world's largest producers of oil and gas. As a result of the conflict, many countries, including the United States, have imposed sanctions on Russia, banning the import of Russian oil and gas. This has led to a decline in the global supply of diesel fuel, as there are not enough refineries to meet the demand, particularly in the case of diesel.
The conflict has also caused a surge in energy prices, with oil prices skyrocketing to over $110 per barrel after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These higher energy prices have contributed to increased costs of goods and services, fuelling inflation. The impact of these price increases is felt by consumers at the pump, with diesel prices rising higher than gasoline prices due to the scarcity of diesel fuel.
In addition to the direct impact on diesel fuel supplies and prices, the conflict has also led to a decline in the production of diesel in America. The Biden administration's energy policies have created a hostile environment for oil and gas producers, with no new refineries being built to replace the older ones being shut down. This has further exacerbated the diesel fuel shortage, particularly in rural communities.
The Ukrainian military has also targeted Russian oil refineries with drone strikes, disrupting Russia's fuel exports and causing prices to soar. These "physical sanctions" by Ukraine have accelerated the impact of Western sanctions, as Russian refineries struggle to replace Western equipment, spare parts, and software. As a result, Moscow has been forced to impose a ban on petrol and diesel exports due to shortages in the domestic market, further impacting the global supply of diesel fuel.
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on diesel fuel supplies and prices has been significant, with rising costs and declining supplies affecting communities worldwide, especially in rural areas. The conflict has highlighted the need for a more sustainable and secure global energy system, as well as the importance of energy security and affordability.
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Rising diesel prices
In late 2022, there were concerns about a potential diesel fuel shortage in the US. This was based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) that showed around 25 days' worth of diesel fuel supply in the country. However, experts clarified that this figure did not account for ongoing diesel production and imports, and it was unlikely that the US would run out of diesel fuel in 25 days.
Despite this, the low stockpiles of diesel fuel have had significant implications for prices. Several factors have contributed to the low supply, including the COVID-19 pandemic, shutdowns of oil refineries, sanctions on Russian oil due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and increased demand during winter for heating oil in the Northeast. These factors have collectively driven up diesel fuel prices, particularly in regions with lower stocks.
The dynamic nature of the fuel supply chain means that suppliers can respond to short-term regional shortages by rallying to fill in gaps in supply. However, this often results in higher costs, with fuel being delivered at elevated prices. The competition for energy between the US and Europe, as both regions aim to reduce their dependence on Russian gas, has further contributed to the strain on diesel fuel supplies and the subsequent price increases.
The situation is not expected to improve significantly in the near term. With the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, oil commodity prices are likely to continue rising, which will, in turn, increase consumer gas prices once existing inventories are depleted. The potential blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global crude oil is transported, could send prices soaring to $120-$130 per barrel, similar to the price surge observed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
While diesel fuel prices are rising, it is important to note that gas prices at the pump may not immediately reflect the current market conditions. They often represent costs incurred weeks or even months prior due to a lag in adjusting to market changes. Nonetheless, consumers can expect to face higher diesel fuel prices in the near future due to the various economic disruptions and global conflicts impacting the energy markets.
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Frequently asked questions
No, the US will not run out of diesel fuel in 25 days. The 25-day figure is a representation of the current balance of supply and demand, not a sign that fuel is running out.
Tucker Carlson claimed on his show that the US would run out of diesel fuel in 25 days, citing data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to back up his claim.
The data from the EIA showed that the US had about a 25-day supply of diesel fuel. However, this data only accounted for current consumption and did not factor in imported fuel or fuel produced by refineries.
A handful of factors have contributed to the current supply and demand issues, including the COVID-19 pandemic, shutdowns of some oil refineries, and sanctions on Russian oil due to the war in Ukraine.
The low supply of diesel fuel has resulted in higher diesel fuel prices, especially in the Northeast region of the US.
